Bidweek

Leaving behind the summer-like temperatures that persisted for much of September, October natural gas bidweek traders contemplated the price impacts of a potentially mild start to the heating season and a more comfortable storage situation compared to a year ago.

Although the natural gas market is approaching the time of year when weather typically takes a back seat to other market drivers, expectations for more heat later this month drove up September bidweek prices in much of the country.

With summer heat failing to counterbalance continued supply growth, a bearish finish for the front month futures contract eroded natural gas prices across much of the Lower 48 during August bidweek; NGI’s August Bidweek National Avg. eased 4.0 cents to $1.940/MMBtu.

Despite scorching temperatures in store for the first week of July, a cooler long-term outlook squashed any hopes for a rally for natural gas bidweek prices, which posted steep 20- to 30-cent losses at the majority of market hubs. Hefty gains out West were no match for the overall weakness seen across the rest of the country, with the NGI July bidweek National Avg. tumbling 12.5 cents to $1.980.

A slow start to summer heat, compounded by plump injections throughout the shoulder season, kept a lid on June natural gas bidweek prices. Less-than-inspiring forecasts accompanied a mix of mostly small month/month adjustments throughout the Gulf Coast, Midwest and East; the NGI June Bidweek National Avg. crept 4.0 cents higher to $2.105/MMBtu.

After natural gas futures prices in April plunged to their lowest level since 2016, and with a bearish weather outlook that is seen tightening storage deficits over the coming weeks, May bidweek prices fell in dramatic fashion.

With a repeat of the chilly April 2018 temperatures that extended the natural gas storage withdrawal season last year seemingly not in the cards, and with production growth threatening to quickly erase inventory deficits, April bidweek traders locked in natural gas discounts throughout the Lower 48.

Forecasts for record-level cold to start the month gave March natural gas bidweek traders something to ponder even as the inevitable warm-up — set against a generally bearish supply backdrop — weighed on market sentiment with the shoulder season fast approaching.

After a decidedly mild December and a tepid start to 2019, natural gas price bulls were hoping the return of polar vortex cold in the back half of January would help drive strong gains during February bidweek.