Forward Look

A lower-than-expected natural gas storage withdrawal and forecasts for continued mild weather for much of the rest of the month sent March natural gas forward prices down an average of 18 cents between Feb. 10 and 16, according to NGI Forward Look.

Renewed buying interest after the previous week’s slide in natural gas prices, as well as supportive news on the weather front, sent natural gas forward prices up across the curve.

March natural gas futures and forwards markets slid nearly 20 cents on average between Jan. 27 and Feb. 2 as the market brushed off news that Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Groundhog’s Day, theoretically indicating there would be six more weeks of winter, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

A cold weather system that was sweeping across much of the United States helped launch February natural gas forwards markets up an average of 10 cents between Jan. 20 and 26, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

In a winter marked by extreme natural gas price volatility due to equally extreme gyrations in temperatures, the third week of January proved to be a rather quiet one as February prices fell by 5 cents or so at most market hubs between Jan. 13 and 19, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

After swinging throughout the week, much like weather forecasts, natural gas forwards and futures markets turned decidedly bullish on Thursday after a much larger-than-expected storage report, lifting February forwards prices up an average 17 cents that day and up an average 10 cents between Jan. 6 and 12, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

There was no spectacular fireworks show for natural gas forwards markets the first week of the new year as bleak prospects for cold weather later this month sent the February prompt month barreling down an average of 56 cents between Dec. 30 and Jan. 5, according to NGI Forward Look.

Double-digit swings marked the final days of trading in 2016 for natural gas forwards and futures markets as the second 200+ draw from storage and forecasts of widespread cold to blanket much of the U.S. beginning late in the coming week ultimately sent February prices up an average of 28.5 cents between Dec. 23 and 29, according to NGI Forward Look.

If anyone in the natural gas market thought the week leading up to Christmas was going to be a quiet one, they were wrong. Nymex January futures set the tone for a volatile week, plunging more than 10 cents early on, but then spiking nearly 30 cents the very next day. The Nymex January futures contract ultimately gained 12.5 cents between Dec. 16 and 21 to settle at $3.54 amid prospects for returning cold for the beginning of January and a solid 200+ draw from storage.