Forward Look

As heat indexes surged above 100 degrees across the United States to close out July, natural gas forward prices rallied during the July 23-29 period, according to NGI’s Forward Look. Prices for next winter and beyond posted the largest gains, as the prospect of improving export demand and lower gas production in the months ahead…

In an ominous sign of what may evolve to the end of the year, scorching heat across most of the country failed to spark a rally in natural gas forward prices for the July 16-22 period, according to NGI’s Forward Look. Instead, persistently weak global exports and continued uncertainty over the level of economic recovery…

Intensifying heat across the United States led a sharp rally for natural gas forward prices at a time when exports remain slow and uncertainty continues over energy demand recovery amid the coronavirus pandemic. Prices for August natural gas jumped 15.0 cents on average during the July 2-8 period, as did the balance of summer (August-October),…

With much of the supply/demand background fairly stable, weak natural gas cash pricing drove a deep dive lower for forward markets during the June 11-17 period, NGI’s Forward Look data show. Double-digit decreases extended across North America through the rest of summer, though smaller losses were seen further out the curve.

With Lower 48 natural gas production well off recent highs, forward prices continued to strengthen May 2-8 despite the absence of any early-summer heat to drive demand. Gains were small, however, as temporary pipeline maintenance was to blame for a significant chunk of the supply cuts.

September natural gas prices jumped an average 13 cents from Aug. 2-9, fueled by growing concerns about persistently low storage inventories that led to a six-day rally in Nymex futures, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

If you’re looking to the natural gas futures strip for any meaningful price action — which should be a given considering the sweltering summer weather, low storage inventories and relatively stagnant production — you’ll need to look elsewhere.

Dry natural gas production in the Lower 48 has continued to soar to new heights, closing in on 81 Bcf/d in recent days, but persistent storage deficits and lingering heat in some regions have market bulls going the distance in an ongoing battle for natural gas prices. August forward prices rose a penny on average between July 5 and 11, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

Natural gas forward prices for June rose an average 6 cents from May 11 to 17 as weather forecasts for the second half of May leaned toward more widespread warmth, with weak pricing likely to incentivize more power demand. Meanwhile, a storage report that confirmed the market’s concerns about current deficits weighed on forward prices through the summer, according to NGI’s Forward Look.