The cash market defied the ostensibly bullish influences of the Northeast and Rockies joining the Midwest in cooling trends that would take low temperatures to around freezing or less at most locations Thursday. Instead it preferred to be guided more by the previous day’s fall of 26.4 cents by March futures in posting losses at most points Wednesday.

Warmer forecasts in the Midcontinent, parts of the Lower Midwest, the Southwest and Southern California partially offset the growth of heating load in other regions.

Several flat to nearly a dime higher quotes, mostly in the Midcontinent, Rockies, Northeast and Western Canada, kept mixed price movement in play. Otherwise price declines ranged a couple of pennies to about 20 cents and tended to be largest in the Gulf Coast and Midwest.

The Carthage Hub in East Texas fell about a nickel in trading that ended prior to news reports of a mid-morning explosion and fire that caused a shutdown of the hub’s DCP Midstream East Texas Plant (see related story). Carthage had seen a big drop Monday and a big rebound Tuesday due to one-day Gulf South maintenance Tuesday at its two interconnects with the plant (see Daily GPI, Feb. 6). Those points, as well as one with TGT, were shut in prior to the blast by DCP Midstream, which cited “operational issues” (see Transportation Notes).

Noting that Gulf South and TGT tend to make the bulk of deliveries to the plant, Bentek Energy cautioned traders, “expect downward pressure on Carthage prices.”

Some windy weather accompanied by snow showers in some locations will be returning to the Northeast Thursday. Similar conditions were already in effect in the Midwest and will continue.

Parts of the South will experience a slight pullback from the spring-like weather they had been enjoying while weather in most of the region will stand pat. Any addition to heating load will be negligible.

The Rockies will become the only very cold section of the West again as warming trends are under way to both the south and north.

El Paso said it had set the probability of declaring a Strained Operating Condition to high because of low linepack.

In its final update on Gulf of Mexico shut-ins in federal waters caused by last year’s hurricanes Gustav and Ike, Minerals Management Service (MMS) said 39 companies had reported 945 MMcf/d in remaining gas outages Wednesday. That was a reduction of 144 MMcf/d from the agency’s previous report on Jan. 14. MMS also said oil shut-ins had fallen another 23,740 b/d to 119,792 b/d. “Some” platforms were still evacuated, an MMS spokeswoman told NGI, but since those figures are most important in the early stages after hurricane disruptions of production, MMS decided not to include that statistic in its final update.

“As of June 2008 estimated natural gas production from the Gulf of Mexico was 7.0 billion cubic feet of gas per day,” MMS said. “Since that time, gas production from the Independence Hub facility has increased and current gas production from the Gulf is estimated at 7.4 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

“It is expected that the majority of the remaining oil production shut in will be restored by late March 2009. It is also expected that natural gas production shut in will be fully restored by late May 2009. These expectations are based on repair timeframes for both production facilities and pipelines which transport the production to shore. Repair time can be affected by weather conditions and availability of materials.”

The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts below-normal temperatures during the Feb. 16-20 period along the Eastern Seaboard from Florida through lower Maine, with such conditions bulging westward to eastern Ohio and Kentucky. Below-normal readings are also expected in the West Coast states along with all of Idaho, Montana and Nevada, northwest Wyoming, western Utah and most of Arizona. NWS looks for above-normal temperatures along the Gulf Coast states from South and Central Texas through the western end of the Florida Panhandle and slightly into the southwest corner of Georgia. More below-normal conditions are forecast from the Upper Midwest southward through central Illinois and the upper sections of Missouri and north-central Kansas.

SunTrust Robinson Humphrey analyst Cameron Horwitz said he expects a 170 Bcf storage withdrawal to be reported for the week ending Feb. 6. Tim Evans of Citi Futures Perspective looks for a slightly lower volume of 165 Bcf, adding that he projects pulls of 60 Bcf and 125 Bcf for the weeks ending Feb. 13 and Feb. 20, respectively.

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