Influences

Influences did not look conducive for higher prices. Only the Northeast was expected to see winter-like conditions extend into the weekend while most other regions moderated to seasonably cool fall weather; a larger-than-expected storage build report from the previous day ensured that heating season inventories would be more than adequate; and that led to November futures expiring 6.6 cents lower on Thursday.

Not surprisingly, with the weekend decline of industrial load being added to the existing bearish influences that had taken the market lower in the previous two days, prices fell again at nearly every location Friday in the launch of the October aftermarket.

Battered by negative influences seeming to come from all directions — mostly mild to chilly (but not particularly cold) weather, weak prior-day futures, storage injection capacity growing ever tighter and any tropical storm threat to Gulf of Mexico production deemed unlikely for the rest of the season — the cash market fell at nearly all points Thursday.

Softness in the cash market extended to almost all points Friday as existing negative price influences were supplemented by the usual weekend demand decline in the industrial sector.

After maintaining a facade of firmness for most of the week in the face of generally weak fundamental influences, the cash market fell at all but one point Friday, finally succumbing to the reality of little weather-based load, an ongoing lack of any tropical storm threats to offshore production, abundant storage inventories and a prior-day futures decline.

Colder weekend trends in sections of the South and Midwest failed to inspire enough heating load to counter the bearish influences of generally moderate weather as winter enters its final week, the prior-decline of 11.9 cents by April futures and the dropoff of industrial demand during a weekend. As a result, prices fell at all but one point Friday.

Colder weekend trends in sections of the South and Midwest failed to inspire enough heating load to counter the bearish influences of generally moderate weather as winter enters its final week, the prior-decline of 11.9 cents by April futures and the dropoff of industrial demand during a weekend. As a result, prices fell at all but one point Friday.

A trio of supportive influences — heating load expected to remain ample for a while longer across Canada and much of the U.S.; the previous Friday’s gain of 12.7 cents by January futures; and the return of industrial load from its typical weekend recess — pushed cash prices to double-digit increases across the board Monday.

Not unexpectedly, prices fell by large amounts across the board Friday. The negative influences were almost overwhelming: forecasts of moderate late-spring weather continuing in most areas; the extra loss of load associated with a holiday weekend; and the previous day’s plunge of 36.7 cents by June futures.