NGI Weekly Gas Price Index

For the three trading days ended Oct. 30 physical gas prices fell an average of 12 cents to $3.62, according to NGI’s National Spot Gas Average.

On average weekly prices regionally were all over the map, but the national average came in at $3.74, unchanged from a week ago. South Texas saw the week’s biggest losses, dropping a stout 12 cents to $3.61, and the Northeast reveled in the week’s greatest gains, adding 26 cents to $3.66. Of individual market points, Transco Leidy enjoyed the greatest gain, adding $1.13 to $2.84, and two Texas Eastern points suffered the week’s greatest losses, dropping 13 cents at both Texas Eastern S TX ($3.59) and Texas Eastern W LA ($3.60).

Price-wise it was a solid week for natural gas as all regions of the country posted double-digit gains with the exception of the infrastructure-challenged Northeast. Only a handful of points slid into the loss column. Nationally, prices averaged a 13 cent gain to $3.74, while regionally the Rocky Mountains outdid everyone with a 21 cent gain to $3.74. The Northeast lagged the pack with a modest 4 cent advance. Of individual points, Northwest Sumas posted the greatest move rising 25 cents to $3.83 and Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus had the largest loss of 49 cents to $1.47.

The Henry Hub spot price for natural gas is expected to increase to $4.00/MMBtu next year, compared with an estimated $3.71/MMBtu this year and an average $2.75/MMBtu in 2012, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Those projections are both higher than EIA had expected last month, when it estimated 2013 to be $3.68/MMBtu and 2014 to be $3.91/MMBtu.

Natural gas prices on average gained 9 cents nationally for the week ended October 11. Only a handful of points in the Midcontinent and Northeast endured declines and the vast majority of locations enjoyed gains, some well into double digits.

For the week ended Oct. 4 physical natural gas prices nationally averaged a nickel gain to $3.52 with nearly all points advancing and those in the loss column confined to the Midwest and Northeast. Of the actively traded points deliveries on Northwest Sumas rose the most adding 32 cents to $3.37 and the greatest declines were seen on the Marcellus burdened Transco-Leidy line with a 33 cent drop to $2.49. Regionally the Northeast came in at the bottom with a loss of 2 cents to average $3.35 and the Rockies stood atop the leader board with gains of 12 cents to average $3.41.

Based on projections of flat natural gas demand, record production and unseasonably warm weather, natural gas prices this winter are expected to be flat compared with a year ago, when Henry Hub prices averaged $3.47/MMBtu, according to the Natural Gas Supply Association’s (NGSA) 13th Annual Winter Outlook.

Summer is over and the shoulder season, where air conditioners have been turned off and heaters have yet to be turned on, has arrived is the message that was sent by natural gas cash prices for the week ending Sept. 27, as a vast majority of individual pricing points across the country declined by 20-plus cents. NGI’s National Spot Gas Average for the week came in at $3.47, down 20 cents from the previous week.

Total natural gas used for power generation in the United States was down 14% between January and July 2013 compared with the same seven month period in 2012, due primarily to higher gas prices relative to coal prices this year, according to a report issued last week by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).