Pattern

As sources had expected earlier, the back-and-forth pattern of cold waves kept a midweek rally limited to two days and led to an across-the-board price retreat Thursday. Only the Florida peninsula was still seeing highs above 70 that day, but prospects for a moderation trend going into the weekend pushed averages lower by about a nickel to as much as 35 cents.

WSI Corp.’s seasonal outlook for August-October shows a continuation of the “basic summer pattern” of hot in the West and cool in the Southeast, with the warmest temperatures anticipated in the northern and central Rockies. In addition to the Southeast, below-normal temps are predicted for Pacific coastal cities, and in the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf states for the period, it said last week.

WSI Corp. in its seasonal outlook for August-October said it expects to see a continuation of the “basic summer pattern” of hot in the West and cool in the Southeast, with the warmest temperatures anticipated in the northern and central Rockies. In addition to the Southeast, below-normal temps are predicted for Pacific coastal cities, and in the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf states for the period, it said.

Was it a case of deja vu? Friday’s market was close to a carbon copy of the day before. Sizeable declines in the Northeast and plunges in San Juan Basin and the Rockies mingled with moderate upticks at nearly all other points. The gains were around a dime or less in a majority of cases.

The El Nino weather pattern, said NW Natural, which affected the western United States in December 2002, continued in early 2003, “such that January weather in NW Natural’s service area was 15% warmer than average.” Overall, first quarter temperatures were 8% warmer than average and 12% warmer than in the first quarter of 2002.

The pattern got broken. For a change cash prices did not follow the previous afternoon’s screen higher, which had been the norm in previous weeks whenever there was a significant change in futures after the morning’s cash deals were complete. Instead, most points were flat to about a dime lower Tuesday.

The flat pattern that had dominated prices at most points from last Thursday through Monday was broken up Tuesday with upticks that tended to range from about a nickel to a little more than a dime. A few scattered points remained basically unchanged again, while variations from the overall trend included a drop of a nickel at Transco Station 85 (Mobile Bay) and a gain of about a quarter at Transco Zone 6-New York City.

With little to no change in fundamental conditions and energy futures continuing to point downward, the cash market saw no reason to vary Wednesday from Tuesday’s precedent of mostly moderate declines. General price movement was more homogenized across regions yesterday, as drops of about a nickel to 20 cents or so characterized the softening for all but a few points.

A couple of sources thought Monday’s trading might have established a flexible template for much of October: softening at nearly all points that was fairly moderate at about a dime down, or less in most cases, and accomplished amid quiet activity. Fundamentals were still weak; although virtually all areas basked under sunny skies, temperatures are still mild to chilly everywhere except in the desert Southwest and the Florida peninsula.