As sources had expected earlier, the back-and-forth pattern of cold waves kept a midweek rally limited to two days and led to an across-the-board price retreat Thursday. Only the Florida peninsula was still seeing highs above 70 that day, but prospects for a moderation trend going into the weekend pushed averages lower by about a nickel to as much as 35 cents.

A majority of losses were within the range of 10-25 cents.

The Energy Information Administration dumped a bit of bearish news on the market by reporting a net storage injection of 32 Bcf last week (despite the West Region drawing down inventories by 9 Bcf). The volume exceeded most prior expectations and contrasted hugely with a year-ago withdrawal of 48 Bcf. The screen took the news rather casually, trading close to flat most of the morning before eventually realizing a gain of nearly 6 cents on the day. However, a couple of traders expected negative consequences in cash Friday.

After all, as a Midwest utility buyer observed, “Today [Thursday] is our coldest day of the next week and a half, and we could be as much as 10 degrees warmer over the next day or two.” She brushed off the screen firmness as inconsequential to cash, saying technical factors appeared to have boosted Nymex and that the screen “seems to pay little heed to fundamentals lately.” Physical prices are “looking pretty weak” for the weekend based on the EIA report, upcoming milder weather and the usual industrial demand slump associated with a weekend, the buyer concluded.

A marketer in the Upper Midwest agreed, saying that temperatures (including wind chill factor) were below freezing Thursday but could get back into the 40s Friday. “Right now we’re still dealing with this on-again, off-again cold, but next week looks like smooth sailing with fairly moderate conditions all the way,” she added.

Even the South had finally gotten in on the cold-weather act Thursday, comparing fairly evenly with the West for high and low temperatures. Some freezes are possible in parts of the South Friday before mercury levels start rising again this week, according to The Weather Channel.

A couple of sources commented on how placid the market is this week, noting that some traders may have linked days off or vacations with the dual U.S./Canadian observances of Veterans Day and Remembrance Day Tuesday. However, a Calgary-based producer’s question was, “What dull market? Oil and gas futures up, life in general is good, so as producers we’re happy!” He noted that his Sumas quotes of $4.10-11 were down about 15 cents from Wednesday, but noted that it was nice to be still above the first-of-month index, even if by only a penny or two. Calgary temperatures were downright balmy for mid-November at 6-8 degrees Celsius (45 F.), he noted.

Duke Energy Gas Transmission said it now estimates that first flows on its Patriot project will begin Nov. 18, “subject to successful completion of necessary hydrostatic testing and commissioning activities and receipt of final FERC approval to commence service.” A Nov. 18 start-up would meet the schedule outlined last summer for the Patriot Extension (see Daily GPI, July 17), which begins at Duke’s East Tennessee Natural Gas system in Wythe County, VA and runs to Rockingham County, NC.

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