WSI Corp.’s seasonal outlook for August-October shows a continuation of the “basic summer pattern” of hot in the West and cool in the Southeast, with the warmest temperatures anticipated in the northern and central Rockies. In addition to the Southeast, below-normal temps are predicted for Pacific coastal cities, and in the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf states for the period, it said last week.

“We expect below-normal temperatures to continue in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states in August, while CPC [Climate Prediction Center] is forecasting equal chances of warmer-than-normal or colder-than-normal in that region,” said seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford for Billerica, MA-based WSI, which provides customized weather data to energy traders. “We also expect the August-October period to be cooler-than-normal in the Southeast, while CPC again is forecasting equal chances of warmer-than-normal or colder-than-normal in that region.”

For August, the company is calling for cooler-than-normal temps along the California coast, and in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic region, and parts of the Gulf Coast states, with coolest temperatures, relative to normal, expected in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. WSI said warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected elsewhere, with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the central and northern Rockies.

September will bring slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures along the California coast and in parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states, the forecast said, with warmer-than-normal temperatures expected elsewhere. The largest temperature anomalies are expected in the northern Rockies and northern Plains.

WSI calls for cooler-than-normal temperatures in October only along the Pacific Coast and in parts of the Southeast, with coolest temperatures, relative to normal, expected in the Pacific Northwest. The forecast shows warmer-than-normal temperatures expected elsewhere, with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the Rockies and northern Plains.

With market attention still focused on natural gas demand, the cooler-than-normal weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast states as well as California in August and September is significant.

“Natural gas inventories have been building at a pace that will meet winter demand requirements,” Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said in conjunction with the WSI forecast. “The absence of extremely hot weather patterns in these key regions increases the likelihood that the natural gas injections to storage will continue. This in turn will moderate natural gas prices, which will also shift power prices lower.”

Since generating units are not overstressed during cooler periods, ESAI added that there will be an increase in generator availability, keeping forced outage rates lower. The group noted that despite the warmer-than-normal temperatures that are expected in the Mid-continent, lower gas demand from other consuming regions will more than offset increased Mid-continent demand. ESAI added that warmer-than-normal temperatures in most regions for the shoulder demand month of October should have “little impact” on gas and power prices.

WSI, which is a wholly owned subsidiary of Landmark Communications, issues its “Seasonal Outlook” twice monthly.

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