Load

Heating load was still plentiful going into the weekend, but prices dropped across the board anyway Friday. The cash market was swayed mostly by the subpar storage pull that was reported Thursday and the accompanying screen weakness, along with the National Weather Service’s forecast of above-normal temperatures during the coming workweek in most of the East and as far into the Southwest as Arizona (see Daily GPI, Feb. 18).

Price movement was mixed Monday, but higher quotes clearly outnumbered losses. Heating load was relatively light outside much of the West, leading one source to conclude that cash gains were largely driven by the previous Friday’s 13.2-cent advance by March futures along with an assist from the post-weekend return of industrial demand and modest continuing screen strength Monday morning.

The previous Friday’s 15.9-cent downturn by March futures proved more persuasive to cash traders Monday than the abundant heating load expected from Tuesday lows predicted to range from a little below zero to the mid 20s across northern market areas and even into the Deep South. The result was falling prices at all points except for Northeast citygates, the Dominion pipeline in Appalachia and the Florida citygate, which were flat to about $1.55 higher.

Although most of the U.S. is expected to experience normal to above-normal temperatures this week, there was enough heating load in the forecasts for Christmas Day into the weekend to generate moderate increases at a majority of points Wednesday. There was also substantial support for the cash market from the previous day’s 44.3-cent spike by January futures, while the normally extra-bearish influence of a long holiday weekend apparently had minimal impact.

An abundance of heating load in northern market areas sustained a continuation of rising prices Thursday — again at nearly all points. The overall firmness was abetted by the 10.7-cent increase in January futures a day earlier.

CIG lifted Tuesday an Operational Warning it had issued in early October due to high load factors and limited storage injection capacity. CIG also noted in early November that the Operational Warning was still in effect (see Daily GPI, Nov. 4).

Prices continued to rise Wednesday at nearly all points as heating load, though getting a bit lighter, remained fairly robust and was joined by prior-day futures support after the November contract rose 6.5 cents Tuesday.

There were still several softer points in the mix, but overall the cash market got even stronger Tuesday as heating load in northern market areas and to a lesser extent in the South continued to drive most points. The gains overcame negative guidance from Monday’s 11.8-cent decline by November futures, which expire Wednesday.

Prices rose across the board Wednesday. Cooling load is building a bit in the Rockies, Midcontinent and western South but remains light overall. However, the ongoing shortfalls in Gulf of Mexico (GOM) production and the previous day’s 27.3-cent increase by October futures supported Wednesday’s cash prices. Also, storage purchases reportedly are fairly strong as the end of the traditional injection season begins to loom.