There were still several softer points in the mix, but overall the cash market got even stronger Tuesday as heating load in northern market areas and to a lesser extent in the South continued to drive most points. The gains overcame negative guidance from Monday’s 11.8-cent decline by November futures, which expire Wednesday.

Quotes ranging from flat to about 60 cents higher were by far strongest in the Northeast. Losses of 2-3 cents to a little more than 20 cents were concentrated in the Midcontinent and a few locations in South and East Texas.

Wednesday’s cash market can finally count on some prior-day screen support after prompt-month futures rallied by 6.5 cents (see related story).

Temperatures will continue to drop Wednesday in the Northeast while the Midwest is entering a warming trend, which does a lot to explain why citygate price gains in the Northeast were much stronger than those of their neighbors to the west. The Weather Channel (TWC) said the Northeast can continue to expect “windy, cold conditions with scattered snow showers and flurries — and lake-effect snows off Lakes Erie and Ontario” through Wednesday.

The South will also start to warm up Wednesday after a bit of post-weekend chill, but predicted highs in the 60s (and occasionally 50s) mean temperatures will still be subnormal. And lows will be chilly enough that much of the region will experience touches of frost, TWC said.

Currently the West has the lion’s share of the nation’s mildest weather. Denver’s predicted high of 77 Wednesday will keep it warmer than the South, while inland California will be seeing similar temperatures. There’s still some heat in the desert Southwest, where Phoenix is peaking around 90. The Pacific Northwest has most of the chill, which isn’t extreme.

Excess supply problems were easing a bit in the West. PG&E ended a high-inventory OFO; Kern River said linepack had returned to normal systemwide, and El Paso lowered the probability of declaring a Strained Operating Condition or Critical Operating Condition because of high linepack from high to moderate.

Kern River was among pipelines starting to remind shippers that Daylight Savings Time ends at 2 a.m. this Sunday. This will result in a 25-hour Saturday gas day, and nominations should be adjusted accordingly.

A Gulf Coast producer said he thinks the market can expect one more day of mostly firmer cash prices Wednesday because of the cold weather, but then should weaken from Thursday into the weekend as temperatures moderate again.

It’s been a pretty slow start on the November bidweek, the producer said, which he attributed to a lot of winter term deals kicking in and cutting down on monthly baseload demand. His own company has less than usual gas to sell for that reason, although he stressed that it still has plenty of supply available. He looks for a lot of activity in the daily aftermarket if it gets really cold because buyers “don’t want to pull storage yet.”

The producer reported selling November gas at several Gulf Coast locations Tuesday at index plus 0.5-1 cent. Transco Station 65 was the strongest point, he said, going for index plus 2 cents. Bidweek pricing was mixed from Monday to Tuesday, with South Texas a little weaker and Louisiana points a little stronger.

Minerals Management Service (MMS) said hurricane-related gas shut-ins in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) stood at 2,476 MMcf/d Tuesday, or about 33.5% of normal GOM output of about 7.4 Bcf/d (reporting companies remained at 62). The volume was down 77 MMcf/d from the previous Thursday’s level. MMS also said oil production outages had fallen 58,415 b/d since last Thursday to 361,913 b/d, and 71 platforms remained evacuated (down one).

A broad area of low pressure about midway between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles was moving slowly west-northwestward, the National Hurricane Center. Development, if any, was expected to be slow to occur.

Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates projects that a storage build of 37 Bcf will be reported for the week ending Oct. 24, down from an earlier estimate of 42 Bcf. Citi Futures Perspective analyst Tim Evans looks for injections of 35 Bcf, 27 Bcf and 50 Bcf for the weeks ending Oct. 24, Oct. 31 and Nov. 7, respectively.

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