Load

Although cooling load would remain about as strong for Thursday as it was Wednesday, highly negative guidance from the previous day’s 48.2-cent plunge by August futures caused a large majority of cash trading points to fall Wednesday.

The market found enough cooling load building in the southern tier of U.S. states and enough residual cold weather in northern market areas and the western half of Canada to post increases at all but two points Thursday. There were also indications of strong storage buying, and the 17.4-cent advance by May futures Wednesday gave an extra boost to Thursday’s cash prices.

Saying it anticipates “significant market load in conjunction with below-normal temperatures forecast for most of its market area,” starting Tuesday Transco will not allow any nominations to resolve due-shipper imbalances until further notice. Due-pipeline makeup nominations will be allowed, the pipeline said.

The market remained unable to find enough heating load to keep prices from dropping further at most points Thursday. Anecdotal evidence from one buyer suggested that increased use of storage to supplant new purchases of spot gas by utilities and end-users is part of the reason that prices have been weak for the most part over the past two days in the face of very cold weather returning to many regions. Futures weakness from the day before continued to be a drag on cash numbers.

Despite only modest heating load, cash gas was able to use support from the previous Friday’s 18.4-cent gain by December futures and the return of industrial demand from its typical weekend hiatus to realize prices ranging from flat to a little more than 55 cents higher at most points Monday. The Rockies was once again the odd market out, however, as triple-digit losses carried most of the region’s points to sub-dollar averages.

Due to some growth in heating load and modest support from the previous Friday’s 3-cent advance by November futures, cash prices were higher at a large majority of points Monday. The return of industrial demand from its typical weekend hiatus also was a positive price influence. Movement was mixed, however, as several points in the Rockies were flat to about 20 cents lower.

Rising temperatures in the Northeast, modest futures strength on the previous Friday and the return of industrial load from its typical weekend downturn caused prices to rise Monday in most of the cash market. But in what is becoming a familiar — but unwanted — week-starting routine for Rockies producers, quotes plunged by double-digit amounts, leaving all points in the region averaging less than a dollar.

Prices continued to fall at most points Thursday as prior-day screen weakness, moderate cooling load outside the southern half of the U.S. and the lack of a viable new tropical storm threat continued to weigh on the cash market. However, rising temperatures in the Northeast after an unusually cool spell for mid-August generated flat to more than 15 cents higher quotes at most regional citygates.

As expected, a combination of what some derided as “storm hype,” continuing heavy cooling load throughout the South and much of the West and prior-day futures support resulted in higher prices at virtually all points Wednesday. Only a quarter decline by Kern Delivery in the Arizona/Nevada market area averted across the board gains that included a $10-plus quote.