The previous Friday’s 15.9-cent downturn by March futures proved more persuasive to cash traders Monday than the abundant heating load expected from Tuesday lows predicted to range from a little below zero to the mid 20s across northern market areas and even into the Deep South. The result was falling prices at all points except for Northeast citygates, the Dominion pipeline in Appalachia and the Florida citygate, which were flat to about $1.55 higher.

Losses ranged from about a nickel to 35 cents or so.

One source, saying he wasn’t sure what drove March futures from negative territory Monday morning to an eventual increase of 14 cents on the day (see related story), suddenly laughed and exclaimed, “Punxsutawney Phil!”

Yes, Pennsylvania’s renowned rodent weather prognosticator, the groundhog, was reported to have seen his shadow, which as everyone knows means that the nation is in store for six more weeks of winter weather.

Even though you couldn’t have told it going by the cash gas market, there was abundant winter weather in the Tuesday forecast from the Southeast through the Northeast, Midcontinent/Midwest and Plains. Even though a freezing low is predicted for Denver, though, merely seasonal temperatures are in place in the Rockies and Western Canada, while the rest of the West will continue to range from chilly to mild.

Some cold weather-related pipeline restrictions that had recently been lifted were starting to show up again (see Transportation Notes). However, a flat Florida citygate defied the overall softness despite Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) keeping an Overage Alert Day in place for only the previous Friday. FGT Zones 2 and 3 in the production area fell nearly 20 cents and about 30 cents, respectively.

Even the pipeline’s projected system weighted average temperature of five degrees Tuesday was unable to keep the Ventura and demarc trading points on Northern Natural Gas from falling about 15 cents each. However, Northern then expects a fairly rapid warm-up to start, projecting averages of 13 Wednesday and 28 Thursday.

A Texas-based marketer also said he was not sure what drove the futures turnaround, although he guessed it might have been due to changing weather forecasts. He was sure that the screen gain and the remaining cold weather at midweek would be enough to boost cash prices Tuesday. He noted that his company was having to deal with plenty of pipeline restrictions, but they were “nothing we can’t handle.”

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