Indexes

Aftermarket premiums over first-of-month indexes got much smaller Wednesday when incremental numbers fell anywhere from a dime to about 30 cents. Most drops were between 15 cents and a quarter, with those in the Rockies tending to be smallest.

The November aftermarket started out with a hodgepodge of price movement compared with both first-of-month indexes and end-of-October numbers. Generally the West could be characterized as moderately stronger in both instances Wednesday, while eastern points tended to range from flat to a few cents lower. But there were discrepancies, primarily in the East where scattered points realized gains from gas traded for Oct. 31 flow.

The May aftermarket began at price levels considerably below first-of-month indexes in nearly all cases, and several traders advised against anyone holding their breath while awaiting an upturn of any significance. They cited a screen plunge Monday that was about twice as large as any of last week’s single-day drops, a general near-term weather outlook that remains on the benign side, and expectations of another big storage injection report (Lehman Brothers is projecting 70 Bcf).

Even with December indexes hitting record heights across theboard, swing trading for the first day of the month managed toone-up the bidweek numbers. All points were priced from marginallyto substantially above index levels Thursday.

The November aftermarket failed to surprise anyone by startingout Tuesday generally well below monthly indexes andlast-of-October prices. Only the Southern California border andMalin managed to stay close to bidweek levels.

First-of-month swing prices were down from the weekend buthandily above February indexes Monday. As further proof that theaftermarket was getting off to a strong beginning, a marketerreported seeing Henry Hub swing swaps trading at $2.67 while thescreen was at $2.61. “That premium of 6 cents was very strong,” hesaid.

Although indexes won’t be set until Friday, the bidweek numbersbeing reported to GPI suggest that October prices will reflectmonth-to-month declines of about 30 cents, give or take a fewpennies. A Southwest-oriented marketer said October looked a bitsofter on Wednesday, but a Calgary trader said intra-Alberta priceshad been rising into the low to mid C$3.20s since Monday.

As high temperatures and humidity pushed heat indexes into thetriple digits, electric output for the week ending July 24 reached81,144 gigawatt hours (GWh), surpassing the previous record of80,335 GWh set last August, according to data collected by theEdison Electric Institute.

The producer who expected Midcontinent prices to be back aroundNovember indexes “fairly soon” (see Daily GPI, Nov. 3) didn’t havelong to wait. In fact, he underestimated the cash market as biggains across the board-except for intra-Alberta-Tuesday carriednearly all points back to index levels or higher. Rises between 15and 35 cents dominated the market.