Although indexes won’t be set until Friday, the bidweek numbersbeing reported to GPI suggest that October prices will reflectmonth-to-month declines of about 30 cents, give or take a fewpennies. A Southwest-oriented marketer said October looked a bitsofter on Wednesday, but a Calgary trader said intra-Alberta priceshad been rising into the low to mid C$3.20s since Monday.

One trader thinks basis quotes will be relatively scarce forOctober because of a penchant for indexing. Because of expectedintense volatility “not usually associated with a shoulder month,many folks got scared and pulled the index trigger instead ofsticking their necks out on the basis market,” he said.

A Midcontinent marketer said that despite a relative lack ofdemand in October, he had the perception that many producers werereticent about committing all their output under therationalization that crude oil priced at more than $24/bbl “makes$2.75 gas look cheap. They hold out thinking gas prices will go upthis winter when plants find switching to fuel oil is tooexpensive. That’s their thinking. We’ll have to wait and see if itworks out.” The marketer himself doesn’t buy that strategy; hiscompany is going into the month “way short” in anticipation of abig price dropoff come Friday.

As most months are wont to do, September went out on a quietnote in swing trading for the last day. Prices were mixed, withmany points averaging flat but scattered points ranging from a fewcents higher to a few cents lower. Most of the softness occurred inthe Midcontinent, Southwest basins and Southern California borderas cold weather in the Rockies tended to moderate.Columbia-Appalachia made the day’s biggest gain of a dime, shavingabout a nickel off the 20-cent gap that had opened between it andCNG earlier this week.

One source said she thought AGA’s report of 79 Bcf in storageinjections last week “would have been considered bullish, but Iguess not” in light of prices subsequently falling in Accessfutures activity.

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