The November aftermarket started out with a hodgepodge of price movement compared with both first-of-month indexes and end-of-October numbers. Generally the West could be characterized as moderately stronger in both instances Wednesday, while eastern points tended to range from flat to a few cents lower. But there were discrepancies, primarily in the East where scattered points realized gains from gas traded for Oct. 31 flow.

The “what happens now?” question received similarly mixed responses. The fact that late swing quotes were “tanking” virtually across the board, along with moderating weather trends, led a slight majority of sources to conclude that prices will be falling today. But others pointed to another below-expectations storage injection report Wednesday afternoon from AGA, followed quickly by a screen spike, as reasons to suspect that cash might at least hold flat today or even possibly advance.

However, a western marketer pooh-poohed the idea that the screen rise could support the cash market. Futures jumped as high as $3.44 but then consolidated back down to just over $3.29, “so it wasn’t that much of a big deal after all,” he said. He and others agreed that with weather-related demand weakening and storage inventories so close to full as the withdrawal season begins, cash prices will be hard-pressed to avoid declines.

Prices dropped “pretty radically” as trading proceeded, with Appalachia’s Dominion CNG falling to less than a dime above Henry Hub at the end, although most Dominion deals already had been finished by then, a Northeast trader said. About aftermarket prospects, he commented, “I don’t see much to get crazy about over a low AGA [injection] report with more than 3 Tcf already in the ground, but it seems that some people are looking for any excuse to raise prices. It’s always a tough call on how swing will trade on the first of month but I see a wash despite the screen gain. I don’t expect cash to get stronger again before potential colder weather late next week.”

Indeed, while the National Weather Service continued to project mostly above normal temperatures in the period starting Nov. 6, it did forecast that the heavily populated East Coast will register below normal readings.

A trader reporting PG&E citygate incremental prices nearly 20 cents above his bidweek average in the high $3.00s said demand remained fairly strong at the gate, crediting it to people who stayed in short positions during bidweek but finally had to buy covering supplies Wednesday. They bought a lot of gas in the morning at the day’s highest prices, he said, but gate quotes dropped off late as did the rest of the market.

AGA said 23 Bcf was injected into storage last week, a figure which fell substantially below most prior estimates for a second straight week. The report of a net 2 Bcf withdrawal in the Producing Region while the Consuming Region East added 25 Bcf (zero change was seen in the Consuming Region West) appeared to confirm sources’ reports of some traders taking out production area storage to sell into the cash market run-ups last week, but that such action wasn’t feasible in the major market areas (see Daily GPI, Oct. 29).

Tropical Depression 15 developed into Tropical Storm Michelle, the season’s 15th named storm, over northeastern Nicaragua late Wednesday afternoon and was dumping heavy rains over parts of Nicaragua and Honduras. It was drifting slowly toward the north and expected to develop further upon reaching the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Lorenzo was beginning to dissipate in the eastern Atlantic.

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