The November aftermarket failed to surprise anyone by startingout Tuesday generally well below monthly indexes andlast-of-October prices. Only the Southern California border andMalin managed to stay close to bidweek levels.

The reason for the initial softness was easy to see, sourcessaid. The same widespread mild weather that caused both cash andfutures to drop during much of October is still with us in mostareas. In addition, in the markets that do have cold temperatures,either it isn’t very cold or they are fairly sparsely populated,they said. An example of the latter is the Upper Plains, wherenear-blizzard conditions were forecast for overnight and today, butthey wouldn’t affect enough residents to create any substantial gasdemand.

Another bearish factor is storage, said a western utility buyerwho is expecting a fairly large AGA report today in the 55-60 Bcfrange. “We’ve been back and forth nearly all year about whether toworry about storage levels, but people seem pretty comfortable withthe situation for now,” he said. The next six weeks are critical tothis market, the buyer added. “If some weather doesn’t show up,then all bets are off for strong winter prices.”

A marketer concurred, saying the market areas are “fallingapart” and it was causing gas to back up into the Gulf Coast. It’sgoing to stay like this until the weather changes, he said.

Many traders experienced large ranges Tuesday. One marketer saidswing numbers were “all over the map,” at least partially becauseof trading for the first “on top of baseload deals done duringbidweek.”

A Canadian producer reported being relatively inactive for thetime being, but he expects things to pick up around mid-month whenAlliance Pipeline is scheduled for official startup. However, theproducer is not alone in saying he would not be surprised ifAlliance does not meet its current Nov. 13 schedule.

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