Growth

Facing an oversupply that has been compounded by associated gas growth in the Permian Basin, natural gas prices could be headed for a “down year” in 2019 as demand is unable to keep up, according to analysts with Raymond James & Associates Inc.

Natural gas demand emerged as the global fuel of choice last year, particularly in the United States and China, as energy consumption worldwide increased by 2.3%, the fastest pace this decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Monday.

MDU Resources Group Inc. senior executives earlier this month promised to expand the midstream pipeline and construction business units following a “solid” performance in 2018 by all of the businesses.

The tenacious natural gas production growth that has characterized the Appalachian Basin over the last decade finally appears to be slowing as an epic pipeline buildout nears its conclusion, demand ebbs and operators realign their visions for the future.

North American exploration spending in 2019 is tracking higher for the third consecutive year, albeit at a slower pace, with natural gas-heavy budgets poised to reset higher, while oil operators weigh the implications of extended lower prices.

Mexico’s economy grew 3.6% year-on-year in the third quarter on the back of broad-based growth, including in the industrial sector. The forecast for the year remains steady at 2.1%, according to the Federal Reserve Board of Dallas.

Going back to last year, natural gas production forecasts based on drilling fundamentals missed key signals from equity markets that had predicted the recent surge in Lower 48 supply, according to East Daley Capital’s Matthew Lewis, who directs financial analysis for the firm.

Royal Dutch Shell plc in the first three months of the year benefited from its substantial — and growing — natural gas liquefaction business, with global sales climbing 17% year/year to 18.58 million metric tons (mmt) and volumes increasing 9% to 8.9 mmt.

China’s unconventional natural gas production has undergone significant progress in the past 10 years, increasing to nearly 600 wells and 9 bcm (317.8 Bcf) of production in 2017, and output is likely to double to 17 bcm (600 Bcf) in 2020, according to Wood Mackenzie.