Forecasts

Even as Tropical Storm Don churned into the central and western Gulf of Mexico and hot weather forecasts continued for much of the eastern U.S., prices fell in most of the market Thursday. The fact that trading covered flows over the July 30-31 weekend played a part in the overall softness, and the flat performance of expiration-date futures on Wednesday gave no guidance to cash traders.

Even with high-temperature records being set from New York City through the Washington, DC, area Friday, forecasts of continuing hot weather no longer seemed to matter in the gas market. Instead, steep plunges at some Northeast citygates led an overall price downturn that seemed to be responding more to recent futures weakness, high storage inventories and the usual weekend loss of industrial load.

Southern said Friday that based on weather forecasts and projected demand on its system, five delivery groups (see the bulletin board for details) will be subject to an OFO Type 3 Level 1 effective with the start of Monday’s gas day until further notice.

August natural gas was unchanged Monday in trading largely described as technical with little impact from forecasts continuing to call for oppressive heat throughout major energy markets. At the close August had settled flat at $4.546 and September was up 0.4 cent to $4.524. August crude oil fell $1.31 to $95.93/bbl.

The fickle nature of weather trends came into play in the gas market again Friday as hot weekend forecasts for much of the U.S. and even extending into parts of central and Eastern Canada generated rallies at a large majority of points. The previous day’s 2.5-cent futures loss following a moderately bearish storage report and the usual weekend decline of industrial load had relatively minimal impact.

August natural gas scored a double-digit gain Friday as traders noted what seems to be a never-ending series of forecasts calling for above-normal temperatures. At the close August was up 16.8 cents to $4.546 and September had added 16.2 cents to $4.520. August crude oil made an advance of its own adding $1.55 to $97.24/bbl.

The combination of continued warm to hot forecasts in many areas and the return of industrial load from the greater declines of a low-demand holiday weekend generated strong price increases nearly across the board Tuesday. Generally hot weather is expected to continue at least into mid-July in much of the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.

What’s actually happening “in the ground” challenges natural gas production forecasts.

Noting forecasts of temperatures in the high 90s in Florida Tuesday and its linepack getting lower; Florida Gas Transmission issued an Overage Alert Day for market-area customers Tuesday with a 20% tolerance for negative daily imbalances.