Forecasts

Amid forecasts that see no end to low gas prices across North America, overseas exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are being rated as a must for development of the Canadian version of shale supplies in northern British Columbia (BC).

The physical market slipped another 2 cents on average Thursday with Northeast points taking the larger hits. In Southern California forecasts of summer-like weather on top of planned maintenance were enough to skew traditional price differentials, and price declines were minimized.

Saying daily demand exceeds its capacity, Southern issued Wednesday an OFO Type 3 Level 2 allocating deliveries at 16 groups on its system.

Not even forecasts of next-day weather staying relatively moderate, combined with Monday’s drop of 5.1 cents by February futures, were able to knock continued general firmness out of the cash market Tuesday. Somehow the widely acknowledged fact of abundant storage remaining available is having little impact on continued purchases of spot gas.

February natural gas managed to gain ground Friday as weather forecasts showed impending cooler conditions in eastern and north-central states. At the close February had risen 8.2 cents to $3.062 and March had added 8.1 cents to $3.098. February crude oil eased 25 cents to $101.56/bbl.

Continuing cold weather near the East Coast and in Eastern Canada contrasted with milder forecasts for the western two-thirds of the nation to produce mixed price movement Tuesday. A modest majority of locations softened. The restoration of industrial demand following a holiday weekend appeared to have little market impact.

Generally moderating forecasts for Friday that had The Weather Channel’s website asking “Late December…or Fall?” in its daily headline Thursday were a factor in Northeast quotes joining the softening trend that had begun on the previous day in the rest of the market. A small prior-day futures loss contributed a bit to downturns by all but a couple of trading locations.

Other than parts of the South, desert Southwest and California, it was rare to find any forecasts for Thursday lows that didn’t range from around freezing to a few degrees below zero. But that was able to keep only a little more than half of the cash market from seeing losses Wednesday. One source suggested that increasing use of storage in lieu of spot gas purchases may have been limiting the price-boosting impact of the cold weather.

In trading that apparently was based more on colder weather later this week than more moderate forecasts for Tuesday in several regions, prices were up at nearly all points Monday. The previous Friday’s screen loss of 6.4 cents proved to be little deterrent to rising prices, while they got a little extra support from the post-weekend return of significant industrial load.