Forecasts

July natural gas continued to trudge lower Tuesday as traders adjusted to moderation in near-term weather forecasts and cited aggressive selling attempting to trigger standing sell orders. At the close July had fallen 6.5 cents to $4.581 and August dropped 6.5 cents as well to $4.613. July crude oil rebounded $2.07 to $99.37/bbl.

Southern California Gas did not extend a high-linepack OFO beyond Saturday.

The cash market proved to be more resilient than expected Friday. Despite cool to merely warm forecasts dominating in most areas, the expiration-day drop of 5.3 cents by June futures a day earlier and the extra loss of industrial demand over a long holiday weekend, prices remained near flat in most cases and rose at several locations.

Getting an assist from the screen, moderately hot forecasts for much of the East and desert Southwest along with a patch of cold in the Rockies caused cash quotes to be flat to up by mostly small amounts at a large majority of points Thursday.

Southern California Gas declared a high-linepack OFO for Wednesday, setting a 10% tolerance for positive daily imbalances.

After notifying shippers Tuesday that one might become necessary due to forecasts of hot Florida temperatures, Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) issued an Overage Alert Day for market-area customers Wednesday. FGT set a 20% tolerance for negative daily imbalances.

Prices rebounded at nearly all points Monday, even with weather forecasts being mostly mild to chilly in northern market areas and merely warm — but not especially hot except from Texas through parts of the desert Southwest — in the southern U.S. The previous Thursday’s futures gain of 10.2 cents and returning industrial demand after a holiday weekend were chiefly responsible for the overall firmness.

Citing Florida forecasts of high temperatures in the low 90s, Florida Gas Transmission issued an Overage Alert Day for market-area customers Tuesday, setting the tolerance for negative daily imbalances at 25%.

Only a couple of points saw losses Tuesday as the cash market continued a broad overall advance. Cold to chilly forecasts for Wednesday — with freezing lows due in some locations — stretched from Western Canada and much of the western U.S. through the Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. Cash got an extra boost from Monday’s May futures increase of 6.7 cents, and there likely was a small amount of run-up in cooling load in the South, where highs from the mid 70s to mid 80s were predicted for much of the region.