Colder

Coming off of a winter that was colder than normal in a number of regions, WSI Corp. said it expects that trend to continue from April-June in the central and southern Plains and the Southeast, while warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected from the Rockies westward, along with the northern Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast.

Coming off of a winter that was colder than normal in a number of regions, WSI Corp. said it expects that trend to continue from April-June in the central and southern Plains and the Southeast, while warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected from the Rockies westward, along with the northern Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, and the Northeast.

Algonquin said colder than expected weather and high demand in its service territory had significantly degraded linepack, and it asked Tuesday that “all point operators voluntarily use means at their disposal to reduce takes to the greatest extent possible.” These restrictions were in effect Tuesday: no forward-haul AO/IT nominations accepted; no due-shipper gas available anywhere on the system; and a Critical Notice posted Feb. 10 requiring all customers to stay within a daily 2% due-pipeline imbalance still stood. However, that afternoon Algonquin cited improving weather and operating conditions in saying it would lift the Critical Notice Wednesday.

Tennessee Gas Pipeline issued an operational flow order because of colder temperatures and reduced operational flexibility. The OFO Action Alert will be effective 9 a.m. CST Feb. 12 for all LMS-MA Balancing Parties with meters located in Zones 1, 2, 3 and 4. Balancing contracts are required to maintain an actual daily flow rate that does not exceed the greater of 500 Dths or 102% of scheduled quantities. Customers will be assessed twice the LMS Daily Variance Rate ($0.3936 x 2 = $0.7872) for that portion of physical quantities related to overtakes from delivery meters which exceed this tolerance. Penalties will not apply to customers who under take out of the system. Tennessee said it cannot accept unscheduled imbalances and requires all customers to nominate and schedule all payback. A prior OFO Balancing Alert and MAV remains in effect for Zone 5.

The cash market followed Wednesday’s leveling-off phase with upward movement at nearly all points Thursday. Quotes ranged from flat to up nearly 20 cents, with gains in the range of 5-15 cents being most common. A couple of scattered points saw small losses.

Bolstered by a return of winter-like weather in northern market areas and parts of the West, along with positive natural gas futures during morning trading, the cash market saw a surge in prices Monday. Although gains went as high as 20-25 cents or so in California and at some Northeast citygates, most were more modest on either side of a dime. San Juan and intra-Alberta numbers generally ranged from flat to less than a nickel higher.

With continued support from energy futures and touches of winter-like weather starting to show up in some areas, cash prices rose across the board Monday and skyrocketed in most cases. Rockies/San Juan gains of 20-30 cents or so were small only in comparison with upticks of around 40 cents or more in the rest of the market.

November is the month to watch for colder than normal weather, according to WSI Corp.’s beginning-of-September update to its three-month seasonal forecast. The Massachusetts-based forecaster noted that there will be temperature anomalies this month and into October, but they may have “limited impact” because temperature normals and load levels tend to be significantly lower than summer months.

The National Weather Service (NWS) reaffirmed that next week’s colder temperatures — on which many traders had based price hikes earlier this week — are still there, but apparently their market strength had already been milked for all they were worth. Quotes were in mild to moderate retreat in all regions Thursday.