November is the month to watch for colder than normal weather, according to WSI Corp.’s beginning-of-September update to its three-month seasonal forecast. The Massachusetts-based forecaster noted that there will be temperature anomalies this month and into October, but they may have “limited impact” because temperature normals and load levels tend to be significantly lower than summer months.

Meanwhile, November is expected to be significantly cold in parts of the upper Midwest and Rockies, which WSI expects to boost heating demand in those regions, “with bullish implications for gas and, to a lesser extent, power prices.” However, the jump in demand may be countered in two key regions for gas demand, said WSI. The Northeast is forecast to have above-normal temperatures and lower heating demand, while below-normal temperatures are expected in parts of the Southeast, and thus, lower cooling demand..

“We continue to expect a very cool beginning to the heating season in places like Minneapolis and Chicago,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford.

For the upcoming three-month period, WSI expects warmer-than-normal for most of the eastern third of the country (e.g., Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Washington, Atlanta); Southwest (e.g., Phoenix, Albuquerque); Pacific Northwest (e.g., Seattle, Portland); and California (e.g., San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, Sacramento). Cooler-than-normal temperatures are expected in the northern Plains and Great Lakes states (e.g., Minneapolis, Chicago); central and southern Plains (e.g., Kansas City, Dallas, Houston); Rockies (e.g., Denver, Salt Lake City); and Florida (e.g., Miami).

WSI expects the following monthly trends:

Regarding the beginning of a new El Nino event, which was officially pronounced in July by thee National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, WSI wrote, “It is commonly thought that El Nino events are associated with warm winters in the northern United States. However, WSI research has shown that there is no statistically significant correlation between warm winters in the northern United States and El Nino events during the current negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is a 20-25 year cycle in ocean temperatures in the northern and central Pacific. This is a rather important distinction to make as the cold season approaches.”

WSI’s next seasonal forecast, which will cover the period October-December, will be issued on Sept. 17.

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