Bears

Despite cold temperatures both outside and in the latest mediumrange weather outlooks, natural gas prices shuffled lower yesterdayin an extremely quiet trading session. After failing to retestWednesday’s highs yesterday morning, the April contract succumbedto light selling throughout the afternoon. Estimated volume of just32,117 contracts confirmed the thin trading activity.

Whether it be a slumping Sunday, a manic Monday or a terribleTuesday, early-week trading has taken a toll on bulls in thenatural gas futures pit at Nymex recently, with losses stacking upboth in overnight Access trading sessions and in regular openoutcry sessions. For the fourth week in a row, the market was hitwith a deluge of late weekend selling, giving rise to a significantdown-move on the first trading day of the week. And while it wasdelayed by a day because of the Nymex holiday, Monday night’sselling was just as potent as the selling seen on the prior threeSunday nights, leaving some market-watchers to suggest traders haveearmarked overnight Access sessions — especially those over theweekends — as easy opportunities to push prices in their favor.

For the third week in a row, natural gas futures came underheavy selling pressure in the Sunday evening/Monday morningovernight Access trading session, initiating a gap lower open whenregular open-outcry trading resumed Monday at 9:30 a.m. (ET). As itturned out, that was about all the excitement the market couldhandle for one day because prices remained almost unchanged,slipping only 2.9 cents through the session as traders elected toremain mostly on the sidelines. Although the change throughout theday was small, the damage done overnight was significant, demotingthe March contract to $5.821, 38.9 cents beneath Friday’s close.

Realizing that bulls had spent all their bullets, bears hadtheir way at Nymex for the second-straight session Wednesday asthey took prices lower in several selling waves. Not even amid-morning rally could dissuade traders from continuing to takeprofits following the market’s precipitous spike to $9.65 earlierin the week. As a result, the January contract was left to slumplower for much of the afternoon, finishing 60.8 cents lower at$7.537.

A casual observer of the natural gas futures market might lookat the narrow losses in the January contract and the modest gainsin the out months and conclude there was a quiet, post-expirationtrading lull in the Nymex pit Wednesday. December lost 8.5% of itsvalue in its last two trading days, and traders were just easinginto trading January, right? Wrong.

With little in the way of fresh fundamental news, natural gasfutures traded mostly sideways yesterday as traders rested after atumultuous 10 days of trading activity. A modest gain in the promptmonth was more than offset by losses in each of the out months.November finished up 0.5 cents at $4.664 while the 12-month stripclosed 1.6 cents lower at $4.313.

After watching prices tumble 10% last week, bears in the naturalgas pit were content to cool their heels Friday in an amazinglyquiet trading session. The November contract slumped just 1.4 centsto close at $4.937 Friday after trading within a tight, 13-centtrading range. Estimated volume was light, with just 63,929contracts changing hands.

Buoyed by cold weather in the Northeast U.S. and in sympathywith higher heating oil prices, natural gas futures checked higherin light holiday trading Monday as traders covered shorts initiatedin last week’s sell-off. At the closing bell the November contractwas 14.2 cents higher at $5.15.

Natural gas futures finished on a sour note for bulls Fridayastechnical follow-through selling met with a bearish weather outlookfor this week. The November contract finished at $5.008, down 14.4cents on the day, 17.8 cents lower for the week, and a crushing55.7 cents off its high, reached less than two weeks ago.