Bears

Repealing a portion of the gains achieved in last week’s four-day price rally, natural gas futures shuffled lower Friday, as traders pressured prices lower in sympathy with softer weekend cash market values. The November contract closed at $2.43, down 10.1 cents for the session, but 20.3 cents above its closing point from the week prior. Estimated volume was again healthy for a Friday, as 65,418 contracts changed hands.

In sympathy with its petroleum complex brethren, and amid concerns that it is not too late in the season to suffer hurricane-related production loss, natural gas futures shuffled higher Monday, after a disappointing opening trade threatened to take the prompt month to new lows. November finished the session at $2.27, 4.3 cents higher for the day and 13 cents above its Oct. 1 lows.

In reaction to moderating weather forecasts for this week and amid some very negative technical factors, natural gas futures tumbled lower Friday, as traders liquidated positions ahead of the weekend. The November contract was the hardest hit by the selling pressure, slipping 18.7 cents to close at $2.227. The winter strip was not far behind, giving back 14.5 cents to finish at $2.657.

After etching out its daily range during the first 40 minutes of trading yesterday, the natural gas futures market moved mostly sideways, as traders played their cards very close to their vests. Not even a rally by its petroleum complex brethren could entice natural gas out of its funk, and as a result the market was left to check sideways for the remainder of the session. At $2.253, the November contract finished unchanged on its first day as prompt contract at Nymex. Meanwhile, the 12-month strip sifted lower 1.1 cents to $2.768.

Following on the heels of Thursday’s measly one-day, 0.2-cent price retracement, natural gas bears were up to their old tricks Friday as they pressured the futures market to a gap lower open on the daily charts. However, that would prove to be just about the extent of the selling because prices were able to ratchet higher from that point forward as traders covered shorts amid constructive weather outlooks. The October contract finished 1.5-cents weaker at $2.38 in holiday abbreviated trading.

Punctuated by a 5-cent free-fall in the last five minutes of trading, natural gas futures slumped lower yesterday as traders priced yet-to-be-released storage data — guilty of being bearish, until proven innocent — into the market. With that the September contract concluded its penultimate trading day with a 12.9-cent loss to close at $2.415.

Fulfilling most market watchers’ expectations, natural gas futures continued lower Monday as weakness in the early morning over-the-counter market translated into a gap lower open when the regular open-outcry session reopened at 9:30 a.m. (EDT). The September contract was the hardest hit, tumbling 16.2 cents to close at $2.544. A hefty estimated volume of 80,799 lent credence to the price move.

While the trading community continued to stew over what virtually everyone agreed was an outlandishly low AGA storage injection figure, it sent cash prices diving Friday. Declines tended to be between about 15 and 35 cents, with those in the 20s most common. Many points were giving up nearly all the price territory they had gained the day before.

Led by the September contract, which dropped 8 cents to $2.956, natural gas futures slumped Thursday as forecasts for moderating temperatures gave bears the confidence they needed to pressure prices. However, Thursday was not a complete disaster for bulls. Instead, some viewed the price action as just another range-bound trading session in which the market failed to break beneath stubborn support in the $2.90-95 area.