Whether it be a slumping Sunday, a manic Monday or a terribleTuesday, early-week trading has taken a toll on bulls in thenatural gas futures pit at Nymex recently, with losses stacking upboth in overnight Access trading sessions and in regular openoutcry sessions. For the fourth week in a row, the market was hitwith a deluge of late weekend selling, giving rise to a significantdown-move on the first trading day of the week. And while it wasdelayed by a day because of the Nymex holiday, Monday night’sselling was just as potent as the selling seen on the prior threeSunday nights, leaving some market-watchers to suggest traders haveearmarked overnight Access sessions — especially those over theweekends — as easy opportunities to push prices in their favor.

March finished at $5.278, just 7.2 cents below its open on theday, but a whopping 29 cents below last Friday’s close. The12-month strip did not fair much better, dropping 21.6 cents toclose at $5.333.

This reoccurring weekend hangover, which has cost the marketcumulatively more than $2.60 on the three prior Mondays andyesterday, has been pinned on traders getting a jump on what hasbecome a string of negative storage withdrawal comparisons. Whilelast year saw the market pull 613 Bcf over in the last threereporting weeks, this year the market has only drawn 328 Bcf fromthe ground during that same period. With expectations centered on a110-125 Bcf withdrawal this year going against a 136 Bcf pull froma year ago, the trend of decreasing year-on-year storage deficitwill likely remain intact. As of Friday Feb. 9, storage levels were1,041 Bcf, versus 1, 404 Bcf last year and a 1,432 five-yearaverage.

However, storage does not deserve all the blame for the priceerosion. Also of impact is a string of bearish early-week weatherforecasts by both private and governmental agencies. According tothe latest six-to 10-day forecast released Tuesday by the NationalWeather Service, above-normal temperatures are expected from theRocky Mountains eastward, while below normal temperatures will beconfined to the Pacific Northwest, California and Nevada. Normalreadings are expected to take hold in the Rocky Mountains.

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