Bears

Propelled by a technical boost following Monday’s 23-centdecline, the natural gas futures market rallied during the firsthour of trading Tuesday as traders took profits on newlyestablished short positions. But after peaking at $2.31 momentsafter 11 A.M. EST, the December contract once again fell victim tothe same negative weather pattern that has weighed on prices theentire month. That downward momentum quickly took back the earlieradvances, depositing December to $2.189, down 0.8 cents for theday.

Following Monday’s 7.5% price retracement, the natural gasfutures market continued lower yesterday as short and long-termtraders added to newly established short positions. Cash prices,pressured lower for the second day in a row by record-setting hightemperatures, were also seen as a negative price factor. Afteropening at $2.64, the December contract quickly established a new4-month low at $2.59 before settling at $2.643, a 2.2-cent declinefor the day.

If there were any market bears at the 55th annual meeting of theInterstate Natural Gas Association of America, they must have beenscared into the closet by Curt Launer, vice president of theresearch department at Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, and TomasA. Petrie, CEO of Petrie Parkman. Petrie sees $30/bbl oil and$3/Mcf or higher natural gas in the near future.

After resisting for nearly two trading sessions the promptcontract finally caved to selling pressure late Tuesday as localtraders liquidated the last of their positions. On that sour notethe October natural gas futures contract completed its tenure asprompt month yesterday by slipping 7.2 cents to $2.56. Estimatedvolume was robust as 122,906 contracts changed hands.

“Other than a 15-cent crash, it’s a fairly quiet market.” That’sthe only comment a Sumas trader had to offer Tuesday other than acouple of price quotes. It appeared the cash market may have onlybeen teasing producers with Monday’s moderate firming afterdouble-digit decreases dominated on Tuesday. Some sources pointedat futures as a source of cash weakness, but most said it was morethe continuing lack of positive fundamental influences that causedmost points to approximately double the screen’s fall of just over9 cents.

Just as what could be remembered as one of the most intensehurricanes ever to make landfall on U.S. soil gradually turned tothe north and away from production assets in the Gulf of Mexico,natural gas futures turned south yesterday as traders priced stormconcerns out of the market. After gapping lower to open at $2.69the October contract never looked back, tumbling 14.5 cents on theday to finish at $2.636.

The price tug of war continued yesterday in the natural gas pitat Nymex, but in contrast to the previous seven sessions, bearswere victorious Wednesday as commercial sellers were too much forlocal buyers. After it was apparent the highs for the day had beenset, locals quickly changed their colors and were seen adding tothe selling pressure in a round of afternoon profit-taking. TheSeptember contract slid sharply at the close, settling down 4.4cents at $2.704.

Speculation around the much anticipated storage report continuedto run rampant yesterday on trading floors across the natural gasindustry and that coupled with steady fund buying was enough tolift the futures market higher for the third day in a row. TheSeptember contract raced off to a fast start, but was unable toretest the $2.72 high set last Thursday. After notching a $2.66high trade around 10:30 EST the prompt month was left to chopsideways before eventually settling up 4.4 cents at $2.642.

Following two days of nearly unchecked buying last week, bullswere quick out of the chute again yesterday as they bid the Augustcontract higher in early trading. However, the same profit takingwhich capped gains Friday thwarted the buying again yesterday whenprices could not break above the $2.58 level. The August contractspent the rest of the session chopping sideways before eventuallyfinishing up 1.4 cents to $2.542.