The cash market was approximately evenly split between rising and falling points Monday, but multi-dollar plunges at Northeast citygates definitively tilted the overall balance toward the bearish side. Blizzard-like conditions were forecast to continue in the Midwest, but the Northeast, South and much of the West would be relatively moderate for a day or two before the Northeast and Southeast begin to feel the pinch of severe winter weather.

Losses ranged from 2-3 cents to about $4.20 and were concentrated in the Northeast — where all the dollar-plus dives occurred — and West. Flat to about 35 cents higher numbers were most plentiful in the Gulf Coast, while the Midcontinent and Midwest saw a mix of up and down quotes.

While most of the Northeast citygates had sported $10-plus averages in trading for the weekend, none were able to average as much as $8.60 Monday. The only quadruple-digit quote was for an even $10.00 at Transco Zone 6-New York.

Pipelines continued to add OFO-like restrictions to combat the heavy throughput demands on their systems from this week’s siege of ultra-cold weather (see Transportation Notes).

While more moderate conditions were in the Tuesday forecast to the east, south and southwest — almost every direction but north — the Midwest is getting no break whatsoever from harsh winter weather. An Alberta Clipper system from Canada was exiting the region Monday after leaving snow, tumbling temperatures and howling winds in its wake in the northern Plains, The Weather Channel (TWC) said, but a second one will be arriving Tuesday. Highs ranging from below zero to the single digits and teens will be common, the forecaster added.

Northern Natural Gas provided an indication of just how large heating demand will be getting in the Midwest around midweek. A bulletin board posting said the pipeline’s normal system weighted temperature is 14 degrees at this time of year, but it is projecting that the system average will fall from five Monday to zero Tuesday and then to the frigid depths of minus 8 both Wednesday and Thursday.

Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) warned of a potential Overage Alert Day, citing forecasts of 20-degree temperatures in northern sections of its Florida market area later in the week.

Peak temperatures will be near to above average Tuesday throughout the West, according to TWC.

A Northeast marketer noted that after a freezing weekend, the Northeast was experiencing a short warming trend that would take New York City’s high into the low 40s Tuesday, so heating load had fallen off dramatically. However, super-cold temperatures are forecast for the region Thursday and Friday, he said, so traders are likely to see a Northeast rally developing as soon as Wednesday. The marketer said he wouldn’t be surprised to see Northeast citygates soar as high as $20 toward the end of the week.

OFOs and other pipeline restrictions are growing, he added, but there didn’t seem to be any significant transport problems.

It wasn’t all that surprising that price movement was still mixed Monday without any big gains Monday despite the cold forecasts, a Houston-based marketer commented. The Northeast is getting a break from a frigid weekend, he said, and it hasn’t gotten very cold yet across the South, although that is due to change around Wednesday when an arctic front is predicted. The Midwest is where the most severe weather is currently, he said, but that will be spreading to most of the rest of the East around midweek.

It “had to be” the cold forecasts that lifted February futures from a negative position Monday morning to an eventual 2.6-cent gain, the marketer continued. He said he expects most eastern points to realize modest increases Tuesday.

Commenting on FGT’s notice of a potential Overage Alert Day, a Florida utility buyer said the state should be getting near-freezing temperatures as far south as the Orlando area in the next day or two, but that’s about as far down the peninsula as freezing conditions ever seem to get. He reported a $5.35-45 range of purchases in FGT’s Zone 1, adding that he didn’t buy anything in Zone 3 but was seeing mid $5.60s numbers there.

The buyer observed that Henry Hub was trading at a premium of nearly 20 cents over February futures at one point Monday morning, but the contract had closed all but about a nickel of the gap by the end of the day.

The number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the U.S. fell by a net 28 during the week ending Jan. 9, according to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bakerhughes/). One rig was added in the Gulf of Mexico, but 29 quit the gas search onshore, Baker Hughes said. Its latest tally is down 10% from a month ago and 12% less than the year-earlier count.

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