Physical gas prices Friday were within a penny or two of unchanged at most points, and if you exclude Northeast price plunges, the overall market shed an average of a penny. However, if wide-ranging losses in the East and Northeast are factored in, the decline on the day expands to a dime.
Plunges
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Overall Quotes Mixed, Near Flat; Northeast Dives
Multi-dollar plunges at several Northeast citygates stood out as most points in other regions were either flat or recorded changes up and down of about a nickel or less Thursday. Although leaving temperatures around freezing or not much higher in its wake, a winter storm was starting to move out of the Northeast, and other areas were seeing a variety of cold to cool conditions that failed to create impressive amounts of heating load. Cash quotes also continued to get no backing from the previous day’s 5.5-cent fall by April futures.
Prices Fall as Temps Moderate, But Severe Cold to Return
Triple-digit plunges in the Northeast and at some locations in the Midcontinent and West led a price downturn across the board Friday. Moderating temperatures in the short-term forecast for several areas, along with some easing of supply shortfalls in the Southwest and the usual weekend decline of industrial load, contributed to arresting the market’s general blizzard-based strength of the preceding four days.
All Points Fall; Cold-Based Holiday Rally Not Sure Bet
Triple-digit plunges continued at Northeast citygates Wednesday, and unlike a day earlier they were joined by declines spreading across the board. Several sections of the market were due to get a bit more reprieve Thursday from frigid conditions previously, although lows in the teens and 20s were still in the forecast from the Rockies through the Midwest, and sub-zero readings were expected in Alberta and parts of the Upper Plains.
Prices Dive at All Points Amid Further Mild Temps
The tremendous fundamental weakness of cash prices manifested itself again Friday with large plunges across the board. The previous day’s minuscule rally of 3.6 cents by December futures had no impact whatsoever in averting big losses throughout the physical market as the continuing mildness of mid-November weather and the rapid recovery from this year’s only substantive tropical storm-related disruption of offshore production weighed on traders’ minds.
Most Points Up; Northeast Slide Ignores Imminent Storm
Even with a severe winter storm bearing plenty of snow and ice bearing down on the region, triple-digit plunges by Northeast citygates were the only significant exceptions to overall firmness in the rest of the cash market Tuesday. Heating load remained plentiful for Wednesday as the storm left power outages and sheets of ice behind as it departed the Midwest and Midcontinent for its move into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Northeast Plunges Stand Out in Mixed Pricing
The cash market was approximately evenly split between rising and falling points Monday, but multi-dollar plunges at Northeast citygates definitively tilted the overall balance toward the bearish side. Blizzard-like conditions were forecast to continue in the Midwest, but the Northeast, South and much of the West would be relatively moderate for a day or two before the Northeast and Southeast begin to feel the pinch of severe winter weather.
Most Points Rally; Midcontinent Sees All-Time Low
A solid majority of points achieved rebounds Monday from across the board weekend plunges. The overall rally was considered largely driven by the previous Friday’s 35.2-cent spike in December futures (along with a little help from industrial load returning from its typical weekend drop) because weather fundamentals were weak for the most part.
Some Points Rally, But Prices Still Mostly Softer
Several points were able to rebound Monday from Friday’s across the board plunges based on rising heat levels in much of the East and the return of industrial load from its usual weekend timeout, but for the most part cash prices continued to move lower due to cooling load remaining fairly moderate in northern market areas and the screen’s 23.9-cent decline on Friday, which capped a full trading week of losses for the August natural gas contract.
All Points Down as Weather Moderation Continues
Triple-digit plunges by Northeast citygates led a second straight day of prices falling across the board Friday. The South was an exception, but warming trends were due to continue into the weekend in many other areas. The previous-day decline of 7.4 cents by March futures and the typical weekend loss of industrial demand were other bearish factors.