In a much different forecast than some of its peers, WSI Corp.’s seasonal outlook for September-November calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures in all locations except for parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes, with the warmest temperatures relative to normal expected in the Southwest.

Referencing a standard 30-year norm (1971-2000), WSI said it expects September to hold slightly cooler-than-normal temperatures along the Gulf Coast, with warmer-than-normal temperatures elsewhere. WSI said the largest temperature anomalies during the month are expected in the central Plains and central Rockies.

October should bring cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Plains and Northeast, with the largest negative temperature anomalies expected in the central Plains, the group said. Led by the Southwest and Nevada, warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected elsewhere.

In November, WSI looks for cooler-than-normal temps along the California coast, and in the northern and central Rockies, northern and central Plains, and Great Lakes states. Coolest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the northern Rockies, while warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected elsewhere, with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the Southwest.

“We expect below-normal temperatures along the Gulf Coast and in South Texas, while [the Climate Prediction Center] is forecasting warmer-than-normal in that region,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. “We also expect the September-November period to be cooler-than-normal in parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes, while CPC again is forecasting equal chances of warmer-than-normal or colder-than-normal in that region.”

Late last week, New York City-based Weather 2000 said that while it is far too early to predict any specific early fall warm-ups or technical Indian Summer episodes. The Warm-West/Cool-East Pattern, is expected to “stay for September.” Looking into September and October, the company said localized and regional idiosyncrasies and weather exceptions should fade after the Labor Day weekend, engulfing much of the West with broad, subsiding ridging and warmth, and cooling of the eastern third with late summer storms, clouds and some crisper Canadian air masses.

In another take on the coming temperature situation, AccuWeather, in its 30- to 90-day forecast for the September-November period, looks for it to be colder than normal for the northern Rockies and northern Plains, especially during the second half of autumn.

“Above-normal temperatures are expected from the extreme southern Rockies and Texas through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic states and southern New England,” AccuWeather said. “The Southeast also should be above normal. Near-normal temperatures may occur in the Pacific Northwest, the central Rockies, the central Plains, mid and upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and northern New England.”

Noting that the Gulf Coast and South Texas regions are a major natural gas consumers, WSI said a below-normal forecast for September should have a “slightly bearish impact on natural gas prices,” as inventory will continue to build at its recent high pace. The group said the absence of any extremely hot weather patterns for September will moderate power prices.

“Weather will have only minor impacts in the Northeastern consuming regions as we enter the low demand shoulder season,” WSI said. “Looking forward to November when natural gas begins to be consumed for heating, the market will be closely watching the supply-demand dynamics at the start of the heating season.”

Because the WSI forecast calls for a warmer than normal November in the Midwest and Northeast gas consuming regions, demand should ease in the early phase of the heating season and should be slightly bearish for prices, WSI said.

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