Nearly all points ranged from flat to down about a nickel or less Monday, but several sources regarded that as a relatively firm performance in light of the market’s generally bearish outlook. The Northeast was a bastion of strength with double-digit citygate increases, led by a gain of more than 45 cents at the Algonquin Citygate.

The winter weather that generated price firmness from Wednesday onward last week seemed to be departing less quickly than some forecasters had anticipated. New frontal systems are expected to keep the chill on in the Midwest and Northeast through today, and a winter storm will be moving eastward from Texas and Oklahoma through the Southeast.

However, a Midcontinent/Midwest marketer said he was hearing that a Chicago-area warmup could be starting tonight. The February aftermarket remained quiet again Monday, he said. He has seen few utilities coming out to buy swing gas, saying, “Apparently they’re eager to dig into those storage accounts more than before.”

A Gulf Coast producer was in agreement, saying a lot of Northeast customers were buying swing gas for the weekend Friday, “but they backed off today [Monday.] That signals to me they’ll be using more storage this week.” Prices are looking a little softer again today, he said, reporting that Henry Hub was already trading for Wednesday at $2.16 on an on-line platform Monday afternoon. The Hub averaged around $2.17 Monday.

Another trader based his perception of Monday’s slightly lower numbers as “pretty strong relatively” in comparison with next-month pricing. “We did Waha at $2.05-08, which was down 3-4 cents but still well above March values,” he said. But there’s a fairly good chance of price declines getting steeper around midweek, the trader went on. Not only will several regions be experiencing moderating weather by then, but he expects another increase in the year-on-year storage surplus in the AGA report due Wednesday. “We’re looking at the low 90s [Bcf], but have heard some people saying as low as the low 80s.” (Analyst Thomas Driscoll of Lehman Brothers expects a 100 Bcf withdrawal, 5 Bcf lower than the comparable year-ago figure.)

“Those ice storms last week [across the central U.S.] didn’t cause much in wellhead freeze-offs, as far as we know, but they did shut down power lines to some processing plants and cut our tailgate receipts,” a Midcontinent source told Daily GPI.

Natural gas futures again had little guidance to offer the cash market, staying barely negative through much of the morning before eventually settling down a couple of cents for the day. The crude oil and heating oil contracts also fell.

The weather forecaster that many traders swear by or at, groundhog Punxsutawney Phil of Pennsylvania, had a bit of encouragement for bulls Saturday. That shadow was pretty scary, the rodent said, so gas interests will have six more weeks of winter upcoming in which to work off that storage bloat.

Considering how this has been shaping up as one of the warmest winters on record so far, the news about Phil prompted one marketer to quip: “Did the groundhog say six ‘more’ weeks of winter, or was it ‘finally’ six weeks of winter?”

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