Defy

Cash numbers continued to defy seasonable to cool weather in many regions for the most part as flat to slightly higher prices remained the norm for a second day Wednesday. The previous day’s loss of 8.7 cents by October futures also had limited impact in dampening the market.

Although some traders earlier in the week had seen a rally in the East as unlikely due to lack of weather demand, the market appeared to defy forecasts of continued moderate temperatures in most of the region Friday by rising at a majority of points Thursday. It reversed a pattern in effect through Wednesday in which minority gains were almost all in the Midcontinent and Rockies; on Thursday those areas, along with some other western points, saw most of the declines.

Finding they could defy fundamental weakness for only so long, cash prices plunged across the board Thursday. A brief midweek spurt of extra heating load in the key Midwest and Northeast market areas was rapidly approaching its end, the screen followed up Wednesday’s drop of 20 cents-plus with another one, and the extreme bearishness of the storage situation was a hot topic among traders.

Canadian natural gas exports continue to defy conventional wisdom by growing instead of living up to consensus forecasts of production tapering off in aging fields, trade records kept by the U.S. Department of Energy show.

Sections of the market were moving in different price directions again Friday, a day after all points were united in getting crushed. The West and Midcontinent/Midwest, which can expect some heating load as this week begins, saw quotes rise by as much as 60 cents. But the Gulf Coast and Northeast, where temperatures are expected to remain unseasonably mild, recorded losses at most points that ranged to nearly 40 cents.

Sections of the market were moving in different price directions again Friday, a day after all points were united in getting crushed. The West and Midcontinent/Midwest, which can expect some heating load as this week begins, saw quotes rise by as much as 60 cents. But the Gulf Coast and Northeast, where temperatures are expected to remain unseasonably mild, recorded losses at most points that ranged to nearly 40 cents.

San Juan Basin and Rockies prices continued to disobey the overall laws of market gravity Thursday, managing double-digit gains of nearly 40 cents while other points ranged from flat to down about 15 cents. The softening was remarkably consistent as nearly all the losses were clustered within 2 cents on either side of a dime.

Amid the bullish combination of cold temperatures in the short-term outlook and warm temperatures in the long-lead forecast, natural gas futures rallied to their highest weekly close in five months Friday on continued short-covering by large speculative traders. The April contract received the biggest buying boost, trading 15.2 cents higher to close at $3.076. In doing so, it moved through resistance clustered at early-week highs in the $3.03-04 area.

Natural gas futures continued to defy gravity Wednesday afternoon as traders refused to sell the market despite the announcement by the American Gas Association (AGA) that only 64 Bcf was pulled from storage last week. That lack of selling pressure combined with the cold temperatures across much of the midwestern and eastern United States gave bulls the confidence they needed to boost the April contract higher on its first day as the prompt contract. April finished at $2.427, up 3.8 cents for the session and just off its high for the day at $2.44. At 71,577 contracts, trading volume was light.