Mild

December natural gas is expected to open 9 cents higher Friday morning at $2.79 as traders survey the weather/supply landscape and see a market having discounted many bearish dynamics. Overnight oil markets inched higher.

January natural gas is expected to open 5 cents lower Friday morning at $1.96 as the persistent drumbeat of mild temperature forecasts continues to overwhelm fundamental market shifts. Overnight oil markets fell.

In its first full fall forecast of the year, Weather Services International (WSI) said it expects temperatures nationally to average cooler than normal from the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley over the next three months, with above-normal temperatures elsewhere, particularly across portions of Texas and the Southwest.

Physical gas for weekend and Monday delivery overall eased a penny as traders saw little incentive to buy a three-day package under conditions of mild expected weather and the ability to easily make intraday purchases as needed.

The physical natural gas market on average moved a penny lower Wednesday, as buyers seemed content with mild weather to rely mostly on baseload volumes. Points in and around the Great Lakes were up by a couple of pennies and around the Gulf, prices held within a 2-cent range of unchanged. Rockies points were mostly unchanged as well. Futures gained on light volume as players positioned themselves ahead of Thursday’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage report. At the close of trading, June futures had risen 5.8 cents to $3.978 and July closed 5.6 cents higher at $4.030. June crude oil gained $1.00 to $96.62/bbl.

Cash natural gas prices retreated 11 cents on average Thursday as traders elected to factor in mild temperatures across the country and incorporate Wednesday’s screen weakness ahead of the release of government inventory data.

Increased natural gas sales by BP plc weren’t enough to overcome mild winter-sparked decreases reported by several other big name companies, resulting in a 4% (5.86 Bcf/d) decline in gas sales transactions in 4Q2012 (135.01 Bcf/d) compared with 4Q2011 (140.87 Bcf/d)… read more

Increased natural gas sales by BP plc weren’t enough to overcome mild winter-sparked decreases reported by several other big name companies, resulting in a 4% (5.86 Bcf/d) decline in gas sales transactions in 4Q2012 (135.01 Bcf/d) compared with 4Q2011 (140.87 Bcf/d)… read more

Oil and natural gas prices are facing a “third variable” on plentiful natural gas liquids (NGL), which appears to be creating the next domestic supply glut, a KeyBanc Capital Markets (KBCM) analyst said Wednesday.