Weather Services International (WSI) sees a continuation of above normal heat for the upcoming three months for much of the United States, including the East, the Southwest, Pacific Northwest, California and the Rockies, while cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for the Midcontinent, Midwest and Great Lakes states (e.g., Minneapolis, Chicago, Kansas City, Dallas and Houston).

“In August, above normal temperatures will be the rule for most of the United States, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest, northern New England and Texas,” WSI said in its end-of-July update. “The warmest temperatures relative to normal are expected in the Southwest, Rockies, northern Plains and Great Lakes. In September, cooler than normal temperatures are expected from the northern Rockies to the Ohio Valley and in Florida and Texas. Warmer than normal temperatures are expected in the Southwest, Pacific Coast states, Southeast, Mid Atlantic and Northeast. In October, much cooler than normal temperatures are expected in the northern Rockies, northern Plains and Great Lakes states.”

Perhaps the biggest surprise is WSI’s expectation of an early winter with cold October temperatures in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions. In October, below normal temperatures also are expected in the rest of the eastern two-thirds of the country. Above normal temperatures will be confined to the Southwest and Pacific Coast.

“The expectation of widespread below normal temperatures in the northern Plains and Great Lakes is different from the [National Weather Service] outlook where no forecast was given for these regions,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford. “We expect a very cool beginning to the heating season in places like Minneapolis and Chicago.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on July 11 declared an official beginning of a new El Nino event. El Nino weather patterns historically have led to warm winters in the United States, but WSI said that probably will not be the case this time around due to a change in the Pacific sea surface temperature pattern called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern reverse in the late 1990s to a state similar to the 1950s to 1970s. As a result expectations derived over the last 20 years are no longer valid, WSI said.

“If conventional wisdom — ‘El Nino means warm winters’ — doesn’t hold any longer and the forward curve has not built the Pacific Decadal Oscillation into its calculations, we could see a rise in gas and power prices,” consultants of Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said. “The amount of gas in storage, the bane of gas and power markets over the past few weeks, could prove quite useful if heating demand rises significantly.”

ESAI also noted that WSI’s prediction of warm weather in September could mean some extra price volatility in the power market because that is precisely when the generation maintenance season starts to kick in.

©Copyright 2002 Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news report may not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in any form, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.