The European Union’s (EU) decision to cap natural gas prices could jeopardize the bloc’s efforts to refill storage inventories this summer and upend the region’s energy markets, industry and market participants have warned since the mechanism was finalized on Dec. 19. 

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The price cap would be triggered if the month-ahead Title Transfer Facility (TTF) contract were to surpass 180 euros/MWh, or about $56/MMBtu, for three business days. The month-ahead TTF must also be 35 euros, or around $11 above a reference price for LNG over the same three days. That’s well below an initial proposal in November to cap prices if they were to exceed 275 euros, or roughly $86. 

“This in our view significantly increases the likelihood the price cap is triggered versus the previous...