The rally in European natural gas prices lost steam on Monday with a warmer weather forecast and ample Norwegian production offsetting the prospect of a broader conflict erupting in the Middle East. 

The benchmark Title Transfer Facility (TTF) declined 10% Monday and finished just below $15/MMBtu after charging higher last week following Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas on Oct. 8. Prices are still about 25% higher than they were before the war started. 

While Israel plays a small role in the global gas trade, the market remains on edge about the possibility of further supply disruptions if other major LNG producers in the region such as Qatar are impacted. The threat of renewed labor strikes at Australian export terminals and an outage on a pipeline linking Finland...