Israel’s war against Hamas has done little so far to disrupt global natural gas supply balances, but a confluence of factors have combined in a short period of time to shatter the perceived sense of calm that had prevailed over the market heading into winter.

Egypt

“I don’t think fundamentals have changed at all, however, sentiment has,” said Marex’s Toby Copson, a managing director and head of Asia-Pacific energy. “Conflicts spook markets, and coupled with the damage to the European pipeline and fears of shipping lanes being affected, the market is pricing in these disruptions.”

Natural gas prices in Asia and Europe are at their highest levels in about six months. The prompt Dutch Title Transfer Facility contract has gained 40% since Israel’s declaration of war...