Forward Look

“Don’t count your chickens before they hatch” was the lesson learned this week as natural gas forwards markets fizzled out after last week’s rally — falling an average 5 cents for September — as weather forecasts that had called for more hot weather to end August and start September cooled significantly.

What a difference a week makes. Just a week after plunging by the double digits, natural gas September forward prices vaulted an average 22 cents from Aug. 4 to 10 as weather forecasts became more convincing that the United States will experience more hot weather for the second half of August and into the first week of September.

Natural gas forward prices couldn’t catch a break this week as forecasts for cooler weather and an unimpressive storage report sent September prices down by an average 11.5 cents between July 28 and Aug. 3, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

In a week that saw the Nymex August natural gas futures contract swing in a tight 16-cent range between July 21 and 27, the front-month futures ended the period essentially where it started as cooler weather forecasts bumped up against a bullish storage report, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

August natural gas forward markets rose an average 4.3 cents between July 14 and 20 as scorching temperatures this week lifted power burn to the highest levels of the summer so far, while longer-term weather forecasts continued to show some cooling in key demand regions, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

With heat indexes soaring above 100 degrees over much of the United States and forecasts indicating more hot weather on the way, natural gas forward prices for August rose an average 9 cents from July 7 to 13, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

While many folks across the United States celebrated the Independence Day holiday gorging on hot dogs and hamburgers, natural gas market bears proved to be still ravenous after the holiday, sending August forward prices down an average 14 cents between June 30 and July 6, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

After spending much of June in negative territory, natural gas forward markets ended the month on a strong note, with August gaining an average 7.7 cents between June 23 and 29 as heat is expected to blanket much of the country in the coming weeks to drive up demand, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

Natural gas forward prices put up substantial declines for the period between June 16 and 22, with July prices averaging 15 cents lower during that time as markets were hit with news that they possibly will have to wait until the second week of July for more summer heat to kick in, according to NGI’s Forward Look.