Forward Look

February natural gas forward prices enjoyed a wild ride between Jan. 12 and 18 as shifting weather sentiment, a surprise storage report and returning production left the benchmark Henry Hub down only a penny but Northeast markets down as much as 86 cents, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

Unrelenting cold and a record-by-a-long-shot natural gas storage withdrawal sent February gas prices up an average 46 cents from Jan. 5 to 11, with New England markets surging more than $2.00 and Northeast markets up more than $1.00 as bitter conditions are expected to remain in the region for at least another week, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

For all the madness that consumed the spot natural gas market in the past few days and sent prices in New York to the highest level ever recorded, forward gas prices averaged more than 10 cents lower amid relief ahead from the biting temperatures starting mid-January, according to NGI Forward Look.

With weather forecasters throwing out words like “arctic blasts” and “sub-freezing conditions”, natural gas traders finally took notice of the cold weather that has blanketed the United States since Christmas and is expected to last through at least the first week of January. February natural gas forward prices rose an average 35 cents from Dec. 22 to 28, while March shot up an average 29 cents, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

Natural gas forward prices rose an average 7 cents from Dec. 15 to 21, as northeastern United States pricing locations posted substantial gains on cold weather forecasts while the rest of the country seesawed throughout the week only to end up nearly unchanged, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

It was another week in the red for natural gas forward markets as January prices shed an average 15 cents from Dec. 8-14 as significantly colder weather forecast for the remainder of the year was not enough to take down near-record production in the Lower 48, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

The high in the U.S. energy capital of Houston reached 81 last Monday, but the city woke up to snow and chilly temperatures on Friday. Still, it wasn’t enough to convince the natural gas market that wintry weather was here to stay, although the long-range weather outlooks indicate frigid temperatures ahead. January forward prices plunged an average 35 cents from Dec. 1 to 7, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

There were four days of double-digit moves for natural gas futures and forwards markets, but when all was said and done, January prices averaged just a penny lower from Nov. 24 to 30, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

Warm weather trends in forecasts for the remainder of November and into December crushed natural gas futures and forwards markets during the short week leading up to the Thanksgiving Day holiday, with December prices averaging 9 cents lower from Nov. 17 to 21, according to NGI’s Forward Look.