Weakness

Continuing weakness in the gas market due to a sharp drop indemand prompted Lehman Brothers to lower its gas price forecastsfor the first quarter and for the years 2001 and 2002. However, itmaintained its gas price forecast for 2003 and raised its crude oilprice forecasts.

Continuing weakness in the gas market due to a sharp drop indemand prompted Lehman Brothers to lower its gas price forecastsfor the first quarter and for the years 2001 and 2002. However, itmaintained its gas price forecast for 2003 and raised its crude oilprice forecasts.

Pressured by weakness in early morning over-the-counter trading,natural gas futures gapped lower on the open for the second sessionin a row Monday as traders were once again presented with a priceoutlook devoid of bullish fundamental news. However, unlike theprice action last Friday in which prices sifted lower throughoutthe day, yesterday’s market was constructive as prices workedhigher after finding support at the key $5.00 level. The Aprilcontract finished strongly, up 8.7 cents to close at $5.159.

The April gas futures contract managed a minor gain Friday of8.4 cents to end the regular trading session at $5.270/MMBtu andclose a relatively quiet week on a somewhat sleepy note. For thetime being, the April contract appears essentially dormant within atrading range between $5.06, which was the low trade for April setlast Tuesday, and Wednesday’s high of $5.385, which was the initialreaction high after the AGA storage data was released.

Amid a devastating combination of a forecast calling forwarming temperatures and technical weakness, the natural gasfutures market started the year with a crash Tuesday, as tradersliquidated their long positions en masse. The price impact was feltimmediately as February prices tumbled below $9.00 in overnightAccess trading Monday night.

Fueled by moderating weather forecasts and following Monday’s21-cent decline, natural gas futures tumbled lower in a classicexpiration-day long liquidation Tuesday, as traders rolled theirprompt month positions into back months. After a back-breakingsell-off in the last five minutes of trading Monday, the Decembercontract gapped lower at the open and tumbled 35.2 cents to itsfinal resting place at $6.016 yesterday.

A rebound from last week’s swing price weakness came sooner thanmany traders expected, but it happened for precisely the reasonthey had anticipated. “When we finally get some cold weather,prices will start turning upward again” summarized the conventionalwisdom of a number of traders last week.

The cash market finally shook off the price weakness that haddominated it since late last week as most points ranged from flatto up about a nickel Tuesday, with some in the Rockies/San JuanBasin achieving dime-plus gains. However, with traders still unableto perceive see any significant weather load on the horizon and thescreen falling more than a quarter, the cash firmness was expectedto be short-lived.

Cash traders returned from the long holiday weekend Wednesday tofind most of the market turning considerably softer, and it’s asafe bet that prices will keep falling today, since the entireenergy futures complex was getting clobbered Wednesday, sourcessaid.