The cash market finally shook off the price weakness that haddominated it since late last week as most points ranged from flatto up about a nickel Tuesday, with some in the Rockies/San JuanBasin achieving dime-plus gains. However, with traders still unableto perceive see any significant weather load on the horizon and thescreen falling more than a quarter, the cash firmness was expectedto be short-lived.

Northeast temperatures might get a little chillier as soon asthis weekend, one trader said, “but it’s not going to turn thismarket around.” He and others agreed that the weather outlook forthe foreseeable future remains generally bearish for gas prices.

A Calgary trader reported a fairly tight intra-Alberta range ofbarely over a nickel and mostly in the upper C$6.20s. The lack ofvolatility was a bit surprising, considering the Nymex fallexceeding 25 cents, she said.

Bidweek is a dead issue at this point for a simple reason, alarge aggregator noted. “Nobody wants to do any November businessahead of the storage report” to be issued this afternoon, he said.He was among a majority of sources expecting an AGA figure in the50s (Bcf) or higher. However, a couple of traders said they werestarting to hear some talk of a report possibly in the 40s.

A marketer reported that what had previously been looking likestrong Midcontinent index-premiums for November, with many peoplequoting offers at index plus 2 cents or more, are getting a littleweaker. Several Midcontinent pipes are down to index plus 0.25-1.5cents, he said, “and NGPL [Midcontinent pool] has actually gone abit index-negative.”

Gas sellers’ biggest fear and end-users’ biggest delight wouldbe the recent lack of weather load continuing into November, themarketer continued. “In my opinion, we’ve probably already seenboth the screen and cash highs this year; it happened last year inOctober.” People are not as concerned about storage as they used tobe because “it’s more dynamic, and we can manage it moreefficiently than before,” he added.

Commenting on the failure of announced delays by Alliance andVector to move the Chicago market significantly in eitherdirection, one source said, “There have been enough pipes aroundthe Chicago area for so long that one more or less doesn’t makethat much difference. That’s why traders saw no reason to getexcited about either extra supplies [Alliance] or extra takeawaycapacity [Vector] not being there when they had expected.”

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