Weakness

Pressured by weakness in the Sunday night Access trading session, the natural gas futures market turned lower Monday in sympathy with losses in the crude oil market and amid bearish short-term technical factors. However, chilly temperatures and stronger Northeast cash prices was enough to slow the downside momentum, leaving the April market with a modest 3.6-cent decline and $5.546 close.

A true shoulder-month sensibility began to assert itself again in the spot gas market Tuesday. Generally mild to seasonal weather across the West and South, forecasts of some moderation of the cold temperatures that opened the week in the Northeast, and the prior-day example of weakening energy futures led to price dips ranging from about a nickel to nearly a quarter.

Unlike the previous week, there was no major rebound Monday from plunging prices going into the weekend. But new softness was capped at a quarter’s decline, and only a few points outside the Rockies and Northeast fell by 20 cents or more. A couple of scattered moderate gains were recorded, and most of the rest of the market ranged from flat to down 18 cents.

After being in a state of denial for months over the weakened Mid Atlantic market for new pipeline capacity, Greenbrier Pipeline Co. LLC finally succumbed to reality Thursday, announcing an indefinite delay for its proposed 279-mile pipeline. The project would have provided 585 MMcf/d of firm transportation capacity to LDCs and power plants in the Mid Atlantic region starting in fall 2005 (see Daily GPI, April 3, Oct. 20).

The previous day’s screen weakness, along with a dearth of weather-related load outside the interior West and western portions of the South, were cited as Wednesday’s chief swing price depressants. Except for flat to substantially higher numbers for a few Rockies points, San Juan Basin and Southern California border, quotes fell by anywhere from about a nickel to a quarter Wednesday. Losses in the teens were most common.

With the exception of a few scattered flat to barely lower points, nearly all the market was on the same softening page Friday, showing the most unity of price movement since the previous week. Lack of heating load in many areas, the delayed impact of a bearish storage report Thursday and the demand dropoff typical of a weekend produced overall declines ranging from about a nickel to more than 40 cents but concentrated in the teens.

Pressured by mild weather and weakness in the nearby crude oil pit, natural gas futures slid lower Wednesday as traders continued to retrace gains made during the first half of the month. However, after extending to a double-digit loss in the morning, the May contract battled back in the afternoon as traders positioned themselves ahead of Thursday’s storage report. The prompt month closed at $5.569, down 7.6 cents for the session, but up 4.9 cents from its morning low.

Although freezing temperatures lingered on in Midwest and Northeast markets, weather-related demand was fading in the rest of the nation Monday, and it was only a matter of time before the Midwest and Northeast got their own warm-ups going. With a highly negative screen providing an extra push over the edge, it was hardly surprising to see cash prices falling between about 15 and 70 cents at nearly all points.

Volatility was starting to build in the cash market again Thursday as nearly all points recorded sizeable losses. Triple-digit declines occurred in a variety of disparate markets: Northeast, Midwest, Pacific Northwest, Western Canada, San Juan Basin and California (Malin and PG&E-Topock), and at isolated points such as Dominion and Northern Natural-Ventura. Numbers for the Gulf Coast, Midcontinent, Rockies and Columbia-Appalachia production area, along with the Southern California border and PG&E citygate, tended to range from barely lower to down about 85 cents or so.