Weakness

After suffering a 9-cent setback late Wednesday afternoon,natural gas futures held their ground Thursday as traders electedto play it safe ahead of the holiday weekend. The May contractchecked to either side of unchanged, but ultimately finished inpositive territory, up 1.8 cents at $3.073. A narrow 4-cent tradingrange and a modest 54,989 in estimated volume were evidence of thequiet trade Thursday.

The cash market was mostly flat to a little lower Wednesday;most of the mild weakness was concentrated at Northeast and Midwestcitygates and in the Gulf Coast and Midcontinent.

Despite a strong showing last Friday and gains seen in nearbyphysical market prices, natural gas futures moved lower after theopening bell yesterday and were never able to recover. The Maycontract was the hardest hit, dropping 5.6 cents to settle at$2.889. By comparison, the 12-month strip sank 3.2 cents to closeat $2.96. Estimated volume was modest, with 48,743 contractschanging hands.

While yesterday’s price weakness did not surprise many traders,the size of some of the declines exceeded expectations. Near recordhigh temperatures caused major drops in the Midcontinent, andforecasts of hot weather combined with a dropping futures screen toweaken the Northeast, Gulf Coast and western markets.

Nymex front months continued to lose strength yesterday withNovember opening sharply lower and slipping downhill fast duringlight morning trading. There was significant selling early asNovember dropped into the low $2.70s before 11 a.m. then choppedsideways the rest of the day, before ending at $2.744, less than 2cents off its daily low of $2.725 and down 8 cents for the day.

Much like two Fridays earlier, the usual drop in gas demand thataccompanies business slowdowns over a weekend failed to have anegative effect on prices last Friday. Although it later fell morethan a nickel, an initially higher screen helped cash achieve gainsranging up to about a dime at nearly all points. Only San JuanBasin, the Southern California border and PG&E citygateregistered losses, and those were small at 3 cents or less.

Feeding off Wednesday’s weakness and reflecting fading concernsthat any of the three tropical systems would reach the gas-richGulf of Mexico, the futures market tumbled lower yesterday as bothcommercial and speculative traders exited long positions. Theresultant price slide left the September contract just penniesabove its $2.90 low for the week and turned several bulls intoshort-term bears. The prompt month finished 8.2 cents lower at$2.948 shortly after notching a $2.93 low late in the session.

Enough gas got traded early Thursday at prices within a penny ortwo of flat that late weakness reported at many points failed todrag down averages from Wednesday. However, the late downturns weretaken as a harbinger of continued softening today, especially withthe market subject to the normal drop in weekend demand. Themarket felt kind of juiced up Wednesday but was losing its steamThursday, according to a Southwest trader. He saw “some realsoftness” at the end in Permian Basin.

After a quick check lower to fill in a small chart gap, thefutures market continued higher last Friday in an abbreviated, butextremely active trading session. The July contract finished up 7.6cents to $2.358, capping a two-day, 14.8-cent advance. Estimatedvolume was 66,263.