Softness

The first three Mondays in March consistently saw rebounds from weekend softness (although the gains were rather mild a couple of times and didn’t quite extend to all points in one case). The fourth time was the charm for cash market bears, though, as quotes Monday (March 28) extended the move lower that had been launched on the previous Wednesday and Thursday.

A majority of the cash market Monday continued the price softness that had set in across the board for weekend numbers, with declines ranging from a couple of pennies to about 30 cents, although most were limited to single digits. Unseasonably mild temperatures dominated the weather picture in most of the East outside of the Upper Plains region near the Canadian border.

Cash market softness continued Tuesday as eastern weather moderates from the frigid holiday weekend conditions and western temperatures stay fairly benign except in several snowy mountain areas.

Monday’s half-dollar screen plunge and a transitory moderation of cold weather in parts of the East resulted in falling cash prices at nearly all points Tuesday. Northeast citygate numbers, which had held up most firmly through Monday with sizeable gains amid that day’s overall softening, were in free-fall Tuesday with dollar-plus losses in most cases.

The cash market rebounded strongly Monday from major weekend softness, although most points failed to recover as much price ground as they had surrendered on the preceding Friday. Gains ranged from around 30 cents to a dollar, with many gradations in between.

Most of the market was close to flat Wednesday, with variations from unchanged usually limited to a nickel up or down. However, a few points in the West rose by anywhere from a little under a dime to nearly 15 cents, while some Northeast citygates fell by as much as about 15 cents.

As sources had predicted, the cash market resumed falling Tuesday following Monday’s modest rebounds. Mild to cool weather from the East through the Rockies, along with the next-day impact from faltering energy futures on Monday, were cited as chief factors in the softening that is expected to continue at least through the coming weekend.

Prices fell at all points Monday as small gains in cooling load in some areas were outweighed by the fading of a potential tropical storm threat to offshore production and the previous Friday’s screen weakness.

Moderate softening continued to reign in the cash market Wednesday as slow warming trends fail to prompt enough power generation load to turn prices around. A few Northeast citygates were essentially flat with losses of only a penny, while most other points recorded generally small drops ranging from 2-3 cents to a little more than a dime.