Softness

The producer who expected Midcontinent prices to be back aroundNovember indexes “fairly soon” (see Daily GPI, Nov. 3) didn’t havelong to wait. In fact, he underestimated the cash market as biggains across the board-except for intra-Alberta-Tuesday carriednearly all points back to index levels or higher. Rises between 15and 35 cents dominated the market.

Cash market predictions proved accurate again as pricescontinued to slide going into the weekend Friday. It didn’t take arocket scientist to make that call, sources said, as forecasts ofgorgeous weather virtually throughout the nation (and north of theborder too) should lower gas load greatly by encouraging a lot ofoutdoor activity.

Once again Monday flat to higher Western numbers were in starkcontrast to Eastern prices that mostly fell by around a nickel,although there were a few pockets of resistance in the East thatsaw flat to slightly higher pricing. Trading was predictablysubdued because of the simultaneous Thanksgiving Day in Canada andColumbus Day in the U.S., although few in the gas industry otherthan utilities took off for Columbus Day.

East-West price tendencies remained at odds Monday. WhileEastern points ranged from flat to down as much as a nickel, theWest mostly was registering increases. Gains were particularlystrong in the California market, where Malin was up by nearly 15cents after PG&E had ended its weekend high-inventory OFO.

Canadian prices were strong Thursday, but it was a verydifferent market south of the border. Nearly all U.S. points werefalling between a nickel and a dime in what several sources agreedwas a “very quiet” trading day near the end of a quiet tradingweek. One marketer said he thinks everybody in the industry wantsto go play golf and say, “See you Sept. 1.”

Cash prices were coming down by as much as a dime or more insome cases Thursday, as was widely expected, and many sourcespredict more of the same for the holiday weekend. A moderatingweather trend in hot areas and coolness in the West, Midwest andNortheast certainly aren’t conducive to any market rally attempts,one trader said. And then there was the futures screen’sleadership, or lack thereof, a marketer said. Northeast market-areaprices were down 3-4 cents at first, then dropped another 3 centsafter seeing the screen’s example, he said. He was getting lateTransco Zone 6 (non-NYC) offers at $2.34 after having bought at$2.36-37.

Flatness and mild softness dominated the late-April cash marketMonday. Enough heating load was being generated in the Northeastand Midwest to keep citygates and a number of field pointsessentially unchanged from Friday. Most of the downticks of 2-5cents again occurred in the West, where mild temperatures wereprevailing.

Cold weather helped many Western points avoid the prices dropsin the East that generally ranged from a nickel to 15 centsTuesday. It was snowing Monday and Tuesday in the Salt Lake Cityarea and that is expected to continue today, a trader told DailyGPI. Only the Southwest basins and Waha were left out of the West’sfirmness, likely because they were getting no demand support at allfrom intrastate Texas and Midwest markets, sources said.

Cash markets settled down for the weekend Friday with flat toslightly softer prices prevailing. Most of the declines of 2-4cents were concentrated in the Gulf Coast and Appalachia/Northeast.