As sources had predicted, the cash market resumed falling Tuesday following Monday’s modest rebounds. Mild to cool weather from the East through the Rockies, along with the next-day impact from faltering energy futures on Monday, were cited as chief factors in the softening that is expected to continue at least through the coming weekend.

With the exception of a flat Transco Station 30, losses ranged from about a nickel to 15 cents, with most in the vicinity of a dime. The Rockies/San Juan market tended to have most of the dime-plus declines.

Although most of the heat that most closely approximates a normal summer remains confined to the West Coast and Southwest, temperatures in the South are expected to start edging higher this week.

It was looking increasingly certain that Hurricane Danielle would not even come close to North America, much less threaten offshore production. At 5 p.m. AST Tuesday Danielle’s center was about 1,155 miles southwest of the Azores, a Portuguese island group much nearer Europe than the U.S. More importantly, the hurricane was moving northward and expected to make turns more to the north-northeast and northeast within 24 hours.

The NHC did not resume coverage of what remains of former Tropical Storm Earl, which chugged along as a mere tropical wave southwest of Jamaica toward Central America.

The screen had precious little new guidance for cash traders, falling half a cent. But oil was on the rise again to yet more records in following something of a “first the good news, then the bad news” scenario for supply. The good news had come Monday when it was announced that the president of Venezuela had won a recall election, easing worries about that nation’s exports. But bad news followed Tuesday when Russian oil giant Yukos lost a court fight to turn back the government’s efforts to collect billions in back taxes, further jeopardizing the company’s ability to maintain exports. Crude for September delivery hit an intraday record of $46.95/bbl before closing at another record daily settlement of $46.75, up 70 cents.

Tuesday was a “pretty benign” market day, similar to those early in the month before a flurry of tropical storm activity showed up, said a Northeast trader. The region is still seeing weak power generation demand due to mild weather, he said, and citygate spreads from Henry Hub have shrunk to 40-45 cents or so. He had no sense of a potential cash rally anytime soon, “certainly not before bidweek.”

A Midwest marketer reported holding off buying new gas until the weekend. “We think the storage report will be favorable” for falling prices, and thus expect to be “loading up” on supplies Friday when the cost presumably will be less, she said. She also noted that with the market likely to keep going down for a while, “none of our customers are hedging their purchases for the winter.” The marketer noted that the Midwest is supposed to be getting a little warmer, “but it didn’t feel very warm when I was out at lunchtime.”

Citigroup analyst Kyle Cooper said his final estimation for Thursday’s storage report looks for a build between 72 Bcf and 82 Bcf.

In its outlook for the upcoming business week (Aug. 23-27), the National Weather Service expects above normal temperatures in the Northeast and west of a line running from western Washington state to western Arizona and encompassing nearly all of Oregon and Nevada. It predicted below normal readings for virtually all of the middle half of the U.S.

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