Monday’s half-dollar screen plunge and a transitory moderation of cold weather in parts of the East resulted in falling cash prices at nearly all points Tuesday. Northeast citygate numbers, which had held up most firmly through Monday with sizeable gains amid that day’s overall softening, were in free-fall Tuesday with dollar-plus losses in most cases.

Excluding the triple-digit declines that dominated the Northeast market, quotes fell between about a dime and nearly 90 cents. The West and Midcontinent tended to see most of the smaller dips.

Northern Natural-Ventura recorded the sole gain of about a nickel as the pipeline expanded a System Overrun Limitation day notice into all of its market areas Wednesday (see Transportation Notes). Ventura traded about a dime above the Chicago citygate, which is a quite unusual relationship for the two points, one source noted.

Going by the calendar, winter officially began Tuesday, but actual physical weather conditions had already gotten a jump on the season. Much of the West had been feeling rather wintry since late October until some moderation recently. The East had gotten only sporadic tastes of frigid conditions, remaining warmer than usual for the most part, until severe cold set in early and late last week, with a similar pattern developing for this week.

The midweek trend toward slightly warmer weather in much of the East is being exaggerated by weekend forecast changes that indicated even milder conditions than were anticipated last week. But generally the East is expected to turn colder again by the weekend. Indeed, many parts of the region can look forward to a white Christmas thanks to the copious amounts of snow being dumped as the week began.

Cold and occasionally snowy weather is due to prevail along and east of the Rocky Mountains Wednesday while milder temperatures are likely west of the mountains, The Weather Channel (TWC) said.

The Midwest is getting less of a cold-weather break than other sections of the East, as a new arctic air mass will be moving southward from Canada Wednesday. With moist air coming north from the Gulf Coast, mixed snow and rain are likely in much of the Lower Midwest, while in drier areas to the north temperatures are unlikely to get above single digits and the teens, according to TWC.

A marketer said it was hard to say if the cold front approaching the Midwest will be enough to rally prices in that region. Temperatures were still below freezing in the Lower Midwest as of Tuesday afternoon, so it hadn’t really warmed up all that much, she said.

The marketer noted that trading ranks were already getting thinned out by people going on holiday vacation, saying it was “very quiet” in the afternoons this week. Thursday is the first official day of January bidweek, but she expects little if any trading for next month to get done then, especially since Nymex will be closing early, some utilities will be on holiday and many traders will have left their offices by early afternoon. People will probably just concentrate on getting their holiday weekend swing business taken care of, figuring there’s plenty of time next week to arrange January supplies, the marketer said.

The National Weather Service (NWS) looks for another flipflop in relative East-West temperatures during the Dec. 27-31 workweek, with the West returning to its former status as the nation’s coldest section while much of the East becomes warmer than usual again. Except for normal conditions in the lower Florida peninsula, NWS predicted above normal temperatures everywhere east of a line from northeast Wisconsin through central Texas. It expects below normal mercury levels everywhere west of a curving line from central North Dakota to central Arizona.

“With frigid temperatures, blustery winds and some light snow to boot, the Midwest then the Northeast got yet another wake-up call for winter 2004-2005,” the Weather 2000 consulting firm said in an advisory Tuesday. In the New York area, temperatures [Monday] were the coldest this early in the season in 16 years, with suburban morning lows in the single digits Monday and [Tuesday]. Before the nation can catch its breath, a frigid Christmas holiday weekend [is] in store for the central (including Gulf Coast hard freezes) and eastern states (including Southeast ice), with likely underestimations of the cold’s magnitude once again…

“It is imperative that all forecasters plead some degree of ignorance beyond Day 7 under this regime involving several storm tracks, powerful Canadian air masses and the anomalous presence (and absence) of snow. While themes can be discussed, an arctic high can get a little stronger or a coastal storm can track a little further inland, each throwing off long-term single-day forecasts severely…Additionally, it takes time for cold air reserves to get rebuilt, once they are emptied into the U.S. This is why, even during the harshest winters of the past 50 years, a mild spell will often separate or interrupt polar plunges, especially when ‘+5’ can still mean freezing.”

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