Rally

After a trifling one-day, 4-cent price rally Tuesday, natural gas futures continued lower on the path of least resistance yesterday both before and after the release of fresh storage data. At $4.202, the June contract closed at its lowest level since Nov. 2, 2000, down 7.7 cents on the day.

Following a lackluster rally attempt last Thursday, bears in the natural gas pit reasserted themselves Friday, pressuring the spot month lower for the tenth time in the last eleven trading session. Buoyed by overnight short-covering, the June contract was fast out of the chute at the opening bell, as it broke above Thursday’s $4.55 high. However, the buying pressure dried up at about 10:00 A.M. (EST) leaving the market susceptible to a sell-off. At the closing bell, June was 3.7 cents lower at $4.490.

This week’s price rally, for which virtually no one could discern any reasonable justification, was over Wednesday everywhere except in California. Most points retreated anywhere from about a dime to a quarter, with greater losses in the Rockies but only small ones in the cooling Pacific Northwest.

A moderate rally at eastern points Monday, combined with spikes in the Rockies and at the Southern California border, must have surprised at least a few traders who were not anticipating any respite from last week’s softness.

Monday’s cold weather-induced price rally proved to be short-lived, and few if any traders expect it to be revived anytime soon. Most eastern points fell between a nickel and 15 cents Tuesday, while declines tended to be larger in the Rockies/San Juan and California markets. Due to its frigid New England service area, Algonquin quotes essentially were flat.

Cash prices rebounded virtually everywhere Monday except in California as traders returned from the long Good Friday/Easter weekend. Most gains were between about a dime and 15 cents, with the Rockies seeing mostly smaller ones that ranged from flat to up about a nickel, and points in the Northeast and Appalachia registering larger advances of about 20 cents or more.

Substantial rebounds in cash prices Tuesday surprised many traders, especially because there were no significant changes in overall market fundamentals, and screen support remained minuscule. Triple-digit California gains led a cash market advance that saw most points gaining at least a dime or more, with “or more” being the key operative words. Increases tended to be smallest in the Northeast (Algonquin citygates were flat) and largest in the Rockies/San Juan market.

The market went into a holding pattern for the most partThursday with a mix of moderate increases and decreases that wasweighted slightly to the downside. A big screen runup after mostcash business was completed had several traders expecting that cashwould take that development as a cue to avoid weekend softnesstoday.

Last week’s yo-yo market pattern continued into the weekend asprices reversed direction once again Friday, falling between 15 and50 cents at nearly all points. California remained the contrarymarket with larger declines at the border and Malin and the day’srare uptick at the PG&E citygate.