Monday’s cold weather-induced price rally proved to be short-lived, and few if any traders expect it to be revived anytime soon. Most eastern points fell between a nickel and 15 cents Tuesday, while declines tended to be larger in the Rockies/San Juan and California markets. Due to its frigid New England service area, Algonquin quotes essentially were flat.

A quarter-plus drop in May gas futures that was gradual but fairly steady gave cash traders all the excuse they needed to send numbers in the physical market lower. In other Nymex pits, heating oil and crude oil futures also were weak.

But traders also were looking ahead to expected negative fundamentals, several sources said. It’s currently chilly to downright cold from the Rockies eastward after a cold front invaded the South, and that situation could last another day or so, according to one marketer. But people know it’s mid-April now and such unusual winter-like blasts are only a temporary aberration, he said.

In addition, most traders anticipate AGA to report a “pretty stiff” storage injection volume today, a Texas-based producer said. He was hearing guesses as low as 15 Bcf, but he and others concurred that most predictions were in the 30-50 Bcf range. “We’re starting from a much lower refill position than usual, but anytime you gain ground on the deficit, as is likely tomorrow, people turn bearish.” Thus he expects both cash and futures to have negative reactions to AGA’s report, but said it may not last beyond this week if normal cooling load returns to the South or other regions next week.

Besides the negative screen influence, one trader said he supposed cash also was reflecting a “what goes up must come down” response to prices that have been considerably above historical levels for many months. However, he was a bit surprised that Tuesday’s downturn was as big as it was, citing the cold front that brought wind chill factors as the 20s [degrees] in parts of the South.

Not surprisingly, erosion of futures prices that continued throughout the morning led to similar downtrends in many cash markets. One source quoting an early Transco Station 65 baseload deal in the mid $5.30s, said he was able to pick up a late swing package in the low $5.20s. A Rockies marketer similarly saw Kern River numbers drop about a dime in three successive deals. But besides the screen influence, she said, Kern River prices also were depressed by the pipeline issuing a warning to shippers about high linepack conditions.

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