Prognosticators

Natural gas market prognosticators hit the nail on the head Thursday morning as the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report that 190 Bcf had been withdrawn from underground storage for the week ending Feb. 12 came as no surprise. Even though the report was well forecast, March natural gas futures immediately dropped more than a dime and ended up finishing out the regular session at $5.172, down 21.4 cents from Wednesday’s close.

Natural gas market prognosticators hit the nail on the head Thursday morning as the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) report that 190 Bcf had been withdrawn from underground storage for the week ending Feb. 12 came as no surprise. Even though the report was well forecast, March natural gas futures immediately dropped more than a dime and ended up finishing out the regular session at $5.172, down 21.4 cents from Wednesday’s close.

With no shortage of prognosticators on commodities markets it’s important that traders and energy buyers do their own homework, former trader Tony Kolton told an audience of gas utility executives last Tuesday.

With no shortage of prognosticators on commodities markets it’s important that traders and energy buyers do their own homework, former trader Tony Kolton told an audience of gas utility executives Tuesday.

While keeping the number of hurricanes it is forecasting below those predicted by several other weather prognosticators, forecasting network WeatherBug said it expects 10-12 named storms and an above-average Atlantic hurricane season.

While keeping the number of hurricanes it is forecasting below those predicted by several other weather prognosticators, forecasting network WeatherBug said it expects 10-12 named storms and an above-average Atlantic hurricane season, which kicks off this Sunday.

A growing chorus of weather prognosticators are singing the same tune, predicting a relatively warm weather across most of the United States this winter. In separate reports issued last week forecasters at AccuWeather.com and WSI Corp. added their voices to the mix.

Several indicators in January pointed to a pullback in 2007 natural gas drilling levels, which drove some prognosticators to reduce their drilling activity forecast and lower their expectations. However, the late arrival of cold weather has since driven gas prices higher, and rig permits have begun to rebound, leading Raymond James & Associates to conclude there will be an uptick in drilling activity by midyear that will carry well into 2008.

Several indicators in January pointed to a pullback in 2007 natural gas drilling levels, which drove some prognosticators to reduce their drilling activity forecast and lower their expectations. However, the late arrival of cold weather has since driven gas prices higher, and rig permits have begun to rebound, leading Raymond James & Associates to conclude there will be an uptick in drilling activity by midyear that will carry well into 2008.